FEATURE
It’s like a wedding for 4,000 (without the nippers running around). The women in their finery, the men sporting their best bib and tucker and no-one without a drink in their hand.
The Citywest Hotel on the outskirts of Dublin has been taken over by delegates from all over the country for the Fianna Fáil Ardfheis.
This is an opportunity for the rank-and-file to meet each other, catch up on old times and, time permitting, listen to a few speeches. When the Taoiseach, Bertie Ahern makes his keynote speech at 8 p.m. the bars and foyers will, for once, be empty.
In the main dining room the menu of cod, bacon, beef curry and chicken kiev is traditional hotel fair – nothing for vegetarians; this isn’t the Green Party you know. The familiar smell of hot potatoes wafting down to the main foyer adds to the feeling of being at someone’s nuptials.
This is the last meeting of the faithful before the general election in May and all are agreed the party is headed for government. The hot spuds have now been dispensed with and the soldiers have the belly for a battle.
They’ve got the ammunition. Fianna Fail has served five years in government, overseen unprecedented tax cuts, spending increases and successfully brazened scandal and embarrassment.
The main opposition party is in trouble and Labour is a long way from rediscovering the Spring Tide momentum. The opinion polls indicate the existing arrangement has every chance of being returned and the Taoiseach enjoys consistently high approval ratings.
Delegates should be gushing like the fountain outside the conference hall. But they’re not. So why the subdued mood?
It’s not the defeat in abortion referendum. One TD said the party fought the good fight and pointed out the argument outside the urban centers had been won. Delegates agreed: the party did the right thing.
But there is a feeling the party could be a victim of its own success. After five years of growth and prosperity the ship is creaking. Job losses, industrial unrest and a public deeply unhappy about the quality of public services and infrastructure may yet defy poll expectations and do another of their referendum tricks.
"People only care about the money in their pockets, they don’t remember who gave it to them but they remember who takes it away," said a Carlow delegate.
Another problem a Cork TD said is the success of the 1997 campaign. "We maximised seats, there were some freak results out there. In the best case scenario we could have 79 or 80 seats after the election but to be realistic if we get 77 again we’ll have done very well," he said.
Others were less optimistic: A Tipperary delegate said: "77 would be fantastic. If we keep the losses below three, we’ll be happy with that."
That analysis means that Labour rather than the PDs may be the required coalition partner and the faithful have not forgotten what happened last time. And although not fond of referendums, delegates may yet be grateful that divorce in Ireland is now legal.
The PDs are certainly the preferred partner but if Labour will do if the need arises. "As long as we keep power, that’s all that matters. We might have to give the others a bit of a shake but we’ll still be putting forward our policies and that’s the important thing," a Donegal delegate said.
Earlier today, party matriarch Mary O’Rourke told delegates about buses. Isn’t it usually the best man’s responsibility to organise the transport home?
When patriarch Bertie rises to give the bride away this evening, confident he is offering Fianna Fáil’s hand the question is for delegates will still remains: who’s the groom?