Fed provides economic reality check

A gloomier outlook from the US Federal Reserve served as an economic reality check last night, dampening enthusiasm over reports…

A gloomier outlook from the US Federal Reserve served as an economic reality check last night, dampening enthusiasm over reports that US life insurers may get more government help and Japan was finalizing an even bigger spending package.

Investors are trying to figure out whether ever-expanding rescue programs are moving fast enough to keep up with a rapidly deteriorating world economy, and that confusion is reflected in seesawing stock markets.

On the policy side, the US Treasury Department said some life insurers may qualify for bailout funds, and the White House said its auto task force would hold more meetings with struggling auto makers this week and next.

In addition, the US Securities and Exchange Commission was considering curbs on short-selling, and Japan was putting the finishing touches on $150 billion in stimulus spending.

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A $1.3 billion takeover that would create the largest US homebuilder also offered some solace for Wall Street investors. Pulte Homes said it planned to buy rival Centex Corp as it tries to save costs and withstand the housing market downturn.

But on the down side, US central bank staff lowered their growth projections for the second half of 2009 and 2010, trade reports from Germany, France and Japan reflected plummeting world demand, and US aluminium producer Alcoa Inc posted a second consecutive quarterly loss.

"The (Fed's) assessment of the economy is very bad," said Robert Brusca, chief economist at Fact and Opinion Economics in New York. "This is clearly a big problem that they are worried about. They have their actions in place. It doesn't look like they have anything else imminent at this point."

Policymakers at the Fed and European Central Bank also struck a cautious tone, dampening recent optimism that a $1.1 trillion stimulus package agreed by world leaders this month might lead to a quicker economic recovery.

"Presently, the risk is deflationary job destruction," said Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Fed, predicting the US economy shrank in the first quarter at a similar rate to the 6.3 per cent annual drop in the final quarter of 2008.

The Fed's efforts to boost consumer lending suffered a setback as investors requested just $1.7 billion in loans to buy asset-backed securities, barely a third of the amount sought in the March debut of its plan.

Stock markets have rallied over the past month on hopes all the stimulus measures will bear fruit, but there have been few signs of improvements in company results so far.

Reuters