Election hinges on personalities

The Welsh Assembly almost didn't happen

The Welsh Assembly almost didn't happen. While the Scots overwhelmingly supported the establishment of their own parliament in Edinburgh in the referendum vote in September 1997, only 50.3 per cent of Welsh voters bothered to turn up to endorse devolution.

Earmarked for the assembly building is a car park near the docks in Cardiff, where the new institution will be established in a city which voted against it in the referendum.

Since that close-run vote, Welsh politics has been dominated by personality issues. There is a danger that voters will switch off on the key issues of health, education and the economy, which could undermine the validity of the assembly even before its first session.

The departure from centre stage of the former Welsh Secretary, Mr Ron Davies, after his "moment of madness" on Clapham Common deprived the Welsh electorate of a popular and intelligent personality.

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The contrived electoral college voting system which saw Mr Alun Michael win the Labour leadership contest in Wales in February at the expense of another grassroots populist, Mr Rhodri Morgan, provoked cries of "control freakery".

Labour has been forced to defend itself at great length ever since.

The idiosyncrasy of the new voting system in the Welsh elections could provide an upset for Labour, since Mr Michael's election as First Secretary is far from secured.

Prior to Mr Davies's resignation, Mr Michael was busily carving out a career at Westminster and did not apply for an assembly seat.

By the time he took over as Welsh Secretary, all Labour's candidates for constituency seats had been selected. Therefore his best chance of leading the Assembly is if he wins one of the top-up seats in the Mid and West Wales region, where he heads his party list.

Labour already has three safe seats in the region and his chances of winning the fourth seat could depend on a swing of as little as 500 votes.

He also faces a struggle against the local Labour candidate in Carmarthen East, Mr Chris Llewelyn, who supported Mr Morgan in the leadership contest.

The more seats Labour wins in the 40 constituencies, the less it can win in the 20 top-up seats.

With Mr Llewelyn campaigning hard, Mr Michael could be squeezed out.

If he loses, Mr Morgan and Mr Davies would be ready to jump into his shoes, and the chances are that Plaid Cymru would benefit from Labour's loss with an extra top-up seat.

As the parties engage in the last push in the campaign ahead of polling on Thursday, Mr Michael will board his battle bus to tour mid and west Wales, knowing that a defeat for Labour in Carmarthen East could help his chances of leading the Welsh Assembly.

It is an unenviable position but one which Plaid Cymru and, to a lesser degree, the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives, can make the most of.

After a £2 million publicity and information campaign about the Welsh Assembly, the government - and rival political parties - will finally discover on Thursday how much the people of Wales really care about devolution.

Despite weeks of intensive activity by the politicians, the Assembly election campaign seems to have largely failed to spark widespread public interest.

Labour has been working its election machine flat out to encourage a more convincing turnout than the 50 per cent response in September, 1997. Campaign workers said they would be "satisfied" with 55 per cent but "delighted" by 60 per cent.