TEACHING MATTERS:I hate to say it but I told you so! Three weeks ago, on the morning Brian Lenihan rose to deliver his Budget, I wrote: "We may or may not be on an economic Titanic? But if we are really heading for the iceberg of economic collapse then are we happy to accept that, unlike 1912 when children were a priority, in 2008 bankers should get preference in the lifeboats."
We now have the answers.
Are we on the economic Titanic? No one seems to be sure. Fianna Fáil seems to be revising its assessment of our economic woes by the day in order to justify the cutbacks imposed on frontline services such as education.
The latest scaremongering by the Taoiseach of the worst economic situation in 100 years is perhaps the greatest ever example of self-incrimination. After all who got us into this mess in the first place? Are we happy to accept that bankers would get preference over children? It is clear that while some may be content to bail out the wealthy, many others are not. The recent turnout of parents, teachers and school management in adverse weather conditions to protest about the education cuts was a clear indication that there is far from universal acceptance of the Government's course of action.
The Government may have won the first political battle, but the issue has not gone away. In a short period of time, the rate charged to the banks for the guarantee scheme will be seen as a bargain for the financiers. Nothing has been done about bonuses and little has been done to ensure that bank customers get full benefit from interest rate decreases.
And while this has been going on, the education cuts are being pursued with enthusiasm. I'm sure many Government politicians think they might even get away with it.
But, in one sense, the scale and impact of the cuts has not hit home to many. Parents have yet to be asked to keep their children at home because substitution for teachers has been slashed. There are many two-teacher primary schools where, in January, one teacher could be faced with minding 48 children on her own. There are only two possible outcomes - either one teacher minds (not educates) 48 children or one class is asked to stay at home. Neither is acceptable.
The impact of larger classes has yet to be felt, with many parents probably hoping that their children will not be badly affected. It will be later this year before tens of thousandsof parents will be told their children will be in overcrowded classes. Then the temperature will rise.
Next September, there will be children in primary schools without books. For the first time in decades, the State will not assist parents experiencing financial hardship with school books. That is the how deep Government cuts have gone and an issue on which most decent people will cry halt.
In the meantime, we see predictable attacks on the public service coming from certain quarters. I am somewhat heartened that nearly all who trot out their mantra of a bloated public service recognise that there are no spare teachers. In fact, more than 2,000 additional primary teachers would be needed to bring Irish class sizes to the EU average. Instead, 1,000 teaching posts are being lost.
Emboldened by last month's prediction, my assessment is that the fallout from Budget 2009 is only starting.
• Aidan Gaughran is a primary teacher in Clonmel, Co Tipperary
