How will grade inflation affect the class of 2022?

I’m due to sit my Leaving Cert this summer and hope to study medicine. However, I’m worried that grade inflation means I could lose out even if I secure maximum points due to increase use of random selection. How is this fair?

There is no denying that the actions taken by successive governments to assist the Leaving Cert students of 2020 and 2021 to transition from school to college have had the effect of pushing up grades. This, in turn, has led to a rise in CAO points.

Minister for Education Norma Foley has pledged that grades in 2022 will be "no lower" than those in 2021. As a result, we can expect similar pattern to last year.

The question of how this affects CAO points is complex. Questions can certainly be asked as to the fairness or otherwise of many of the features of the college applications system .

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Many high points courses are a reflection, not so much of the limited number of students on a programme, but of the fact that many places on courses are taken before Round 1 CAO offers.

Many universities also set aside places in popular disciplines for international students, who pay much higher fees

So-called Round A and Round 0 CAO offers are made by colleges in July and early August to those over 23 years of age who secure a proportion of places unrelated to their Leaving Cert results or to those who secured level 5/6 or further education awards.

This is a perfectly valid entry route through which colleges decide to offer a proportion of places on many high points courses annually.

Many universities also set aside places in popular disciplines for international students, who pay much higher fees.

Round 1 offers – when most Leaving Cert applicants receive an offer – also includes a number of features, which further limits the number of places on offer to mainstream applicants.

In the case of medicine, many colleges were forced to use random selection last year due to the volume of applicants on high or maximum points

For example, some places are reserved for applicants who qualify as having a disability that negatively affects their education or who are deemed to meet the criteria of being from a socially disadvantaged family.

Since 2021 there has been a surge in interest and applications from citizens of fellow EU countries who are interested in studying in an English-speaking member State.

In the case of medicine, many colleges were forced to use random selection last year due to the volume of applicants on high or maximum points. While in the past applicants could be differentiated on the basis of academic achievement, this is harder to do when so many students “bunch” towards the top with very high grades.

Every element of the college places process, as outlined above, ultimately determines how many seats in the lecture hall are available to applicants in the class of 2022 seeking a college place on the basis of their CAO points.

Arguably a bigger questions is: are we funding enough places at third level to meet the growing demand?