Dublin pressure for IRA specifics

The IRA statement issued earlier this week has been interpreted by sources close to republican thinking as an implicit acknowledgement…

The IRA statement issued earlier this week has been interpreted by sources close to republican thinking as an implicit acknowledgement that the "war" in the North is now over. It is believed Dublin played the primary role in securing the Tuesday statement.

But it is understood the pressure continued, especially from Dublin, to persuade the IRA to come up with more specific language and provide greater detail of its intentions on the weapons issue. The idea of a timetable which would be set by Gen de Chastelain came into circulation.

Republicans always said the decommissioning issue should be left exclusively to the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning and this was seen as providing scope for diplomatic and political progress.

In his report of December 10th last year, the general wrote that "the commission is prepared, if necessary, to state that actual decommissioning is to start within a specified period". Although not widely noticed, this was said to be the most important point in the statement. In the obscure theology of the decommissioning issue, disposing of weapons in consultation with Gen de Chastelain would, in theory at least, be different in republican eyes from a weapons gesture carried out at the behest of the Ulster Unionist leader, Mr David Trimble.

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The Belfast Agreement provides for total decommissioning within two years, but republicans always argued that this period should only begin with the appointment of ministers to the Northern Executive, which did not take place until the end of last year.

However, as a compromise a possible 18-month period was suggested, which would be subject to the full and wholehearted implementation of the other aspects of the Belfast Agreement.

Sources said there was an additional complication arising from the fact that an IRA convention would have to approve any major initiative on the weapons issue.

The prospect of a weapons handover would also be ruled out, but the possibility of a move to disable explosives was mooted, apparently by Dublin. Senior political sources said the republicans were "being arm-twisted to be more specific about modalities".

The pattern this week was one of Dublin putting pressure on Sinn Fein and the IRA while Mr Blair and Mr Mandelson sought to reassure and calm the Ulster Unionists. The 48-hour stay of execution on the suspension issue did not provide much time for Dublin's consultations with republicans and, while there was goodwill, there was also said to be scepticism on the British side about Mr Ahern's and Mr Cowen's chances of success.

Dublin was also in close consultation with Gen de Chastelain. Republicans have complained about the manner in which the decommissioning body has carried out its business, apparently feeling it should be more proactive and less reliant on the advice of the two governments, taking its lead from the Patten Commission on Policing.

Republicans were said to be happy they could provide documentary evidence to support their contention that no deal was implicit in the Mitchell review to the effect that a weapons gesture would be made by the end of last month.

However, observers said it would not be in the interests of other participants in the process if such evidence were to be produced, which it probably would be if the new institutions were suspended. If direct rule were reintroduced, republicans could feel obliged to produce documents to show there was no basis in the proceedings of the Mitchell review for such an action.