CAUTIOUS hopes for a restoration of the IRA ceasefire in the coming months have been raised by the announcement of a series of "confidence building" measures by the new Northern Ireland Secretary, Dr Mo Mowlam.
According to nationalist sources in the peace process, however, for a ceasefire to be called there would first have to be contacts at a "significant" level between officials of the British government and Sinn Fein.
Dr Mowlam moved quickly to stamp her authority on the Northern Ireland Office with a statement of intent issued within hours of her appointment. She also introduced herself in her new role to the people of Northern Ireland when she mingled with shoppers in downtown Belfast.
In her three page statement, Dr Mowlam committed the Labour government to the reform of the Royal Ulster Constabulary and to promoting equality in employment. She expressed a desire to see Sinn Fein in the Stormont talks if there was an unequivocal IRA ceasefire, and promised to implement the North report on parades and marches.
Over the weekend, Dr Mowlam was briefed by officials at the official residence of the Secretary of State at Hillsborough Castle. She is expected to attend the talks between the Taoiseach and the British Prime Minister which are likely to take place in London on Thursday.
The outgoing security minister in the North, Sir John Wheeler, sounded a note of warning on Dr Mowlam's plan for RUC reform. He told BBC Radio: "It's important to maintain high morale and confidence in the Royal Ulster Constabulary. They have still got to continue the fight and unfortunately some of them will be killed in the process in the years ahead."
Sir John, who is understood to have met Dr Mowlam yesterday, said, "Sinn Fein Provisional IRA have not changed their tactics. They have a dual strategy of the bomb, the bullet, the gun and the Semtex as well as the politics and the propaganda." But he said he was "quite sure" Dr Mowlam would not be fooled, "because she will be very well advised by the officials in Stormont Castle".
The leader of the Democratic Unionist Party, the Rev Ian Paisley, expressed concern that Dr Mowlam might wish to remove the "royal" prefix from the title of the police force. The Ulster Unionist Party security spokesman, Mr Ken Maginnis, said he was seeking clarification of the new government's intentions.
She also received a warning from the republican side when the newly elected MP for West Belfast, Mr Gerry Adams told a Sinn Fein rally in Belfast: "The new government has to recognise that there will be no peace settlement unless every single political prisoner is freed from prisons on this island and in Britain."
Mr Adams, who was accompanied by his fellow MP, Mr Martin McGuinness, said: "Sinn Fein is ready to do business with the British government. We are ready to do business with the unionists. We are ready to seek an agreement, to seek an accommodation."
Republican sources said Sinn Fein was examining the legal position on opening offices for the new MPs at Westminster. The party's policy of abstentionism seems set to become virtually meaningless as a result.
Sources said Sinn Fein was encouraged by President Clinton's intervention, encouraging Mr Blair to tackle the Northern Ireland problem. "The Americans are very keen to get this process up and running again.
However, there is likely to be little movement in the peace process until after the local elections in Northern Ireland on May 21st. An early general election in the Republic would also delay matters, as the winning of a Dail seat is one of Sinn Fein's highest priorities.
There has been speculation that there, might be a cessation of IRA activity in Britain to take advantage of the political situation.