THE final countdown is now on to the opening session of all party negotiations next Monday with the main question now surrounding the issue of a renewed IRA, ceasefire.
However, the prospect of an IRA announcement which would clear the way for Sinn Fein's entry to the talks now appears to hinge on the two governments' efforts to agree a formula on decommissioning and to finalise a draft agenda and procedural rules for the negotiations.
An extremely narrow window of opportunity for an IRA announcement will present itself this week.
It cannot be expected to precede the outcome of tomorrow's crucial Anglo Irish meeting, but on the other hand a last minute announcement next weekend is unlikely to be accepted as satisfactory by the two governments.
In practice, therefore, an IRA initiative will have to emerge between Wednesday and Friday if Sinn Fein is to be certain of receiving an invitation to participate in the opening session with the other parties and the two governments.
The Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) leader, Mr Trimble, will travel to London today for talks with the British prime minister. He is expected to seek clarification of remarks by the Northern Secretary, Sir Patrick Mayhew at the weekend which indicated that a hand over of weapons would not be expected at the outset of the all party talks.
Sir Patrick's remarks were strongly criticised yesterday by unionist spokesmen, who interpreted them as shifting British policy towards a possible compromise on the arms issue.
Sir Patrick indicated that, given a renewed IRA cessation and a commitment by Sinn Fein to the Mitchell principles, meaningful negotiations could be started before the process of handing in weapons was begun.
He repeated his assertion that the IRA and Sinn Fein were inextricably linked, one with the other". But he said: "I do not think that one can expect weapons to be handed in, in reality, right at the very beginning. Equally, there has to be a time beyond which the sincerity of these professions of willingness to do so is seen to be negative."
Sir Patrick added: "I don't think we can expect it [decommissioning] to happen instantly. Equally, if they are sincere it must happen soon.
He asserted that he was legally precluded, by the Act which set up the elections, from inviting Sinn Fein to negotiations if a ceasefire was not restored.
Mr Robert McCartney, of the UK Unionist Party, said these remarks represented "a very bad omen" for the success of the talks.
"They indicate a progression of the government's willingness to make concessions and to follow a policy of appeasement in order to get the IRA into these talks," he said. "And they are going to cause a massive loss of confidence in the pro Union community which will make these talks a farce."
The DUP leader, the Rev Ian Paisley, accused Sir Patrick of "shifting the goalposts again under pressure from Washington from Dublin and from IRA/Sinn Fein".
The UUP security spokesman, Mr Ken Maginnis, said the Northern Secretary had generated more heat than light in making "this sort of ambiguous statement".
The SDLP leader, Mr John Hume, described Sir Patrick's remarks as "helpful". Mr Hume said it was essential the talks should take place in a totally peaceful atmosphere. He added: "My simple request to the IRA is to respect the wishes of the Irish people."
Meanwhile, the Sinn Fein president, Mr Gerry Adams, defined the question of his party's entitlement to entry to the talks as a civil rights issue of equality of treatment. He said the Taoiseach, had a constitutional imperative and a responsibility to uphold the rights of citizens in the North.
Sinn Fein sources also said the legal basis of the threatened exclusion of the party from negotiations would be examined and possibly subjected to challenge.