TURKEY'S ruling coalition took a further step towards self destruction yesterday when the True Path Party agreed to vote in favour of an opposition sponsored censure motion against the administration of the Prime Minister, Mr Mesut Yilmaz. The motion comes before parliament on Saturday.
Mr Yilmaz's three month old government has been paralysed by disputes between his Motherland and the True Path, which is headed by former Prime Minister, Ms Tansu Ciller.
The fall of Mr Yilmaz's government is however far from guaranteed. While Ms Ciller has pledged to sink the administration, of which her party is still, nominally, senior partner, a minority of dissidents from within the True Path is equally determined to keep it afloat. There is a chance that these dissidents will drum up enough support from other pro Motherland colleagues to save the government.
However, political leaders from Turkey's five major parties (two centre right, two centre left and one pro Islamist) are already aligning themselves for advantageous positions if the government does fall and bargaining begins over terms for a new coalition.
Of these parties, it is the pro-Islamic Welfare Party (RP) which is best placed to profit from the current crisis. RP's ascendant status was emphasised in last Sunday's local elections when it won more votes than the Motherland and True Path combined.
Under the veteran leader, Mr Necmettin Erbakan, the RP, Turkey's largest party since last December's elections, has masterminded the crisis between the coalition partners by proposing repeated corruption investigations into Ms Ciller. Her Motherland partners have invariably approved these motions.
The importance of the motions as political tools they threaten the recipient with an appearance before the Supreme Court, but can be blocked provided there is sufficient political will was again indicated yesterday. A fresh, RP sponsored motion, this time to investigate Ms Ciller's private wealth, was approved again with the support of the Motherland.
However, Ms Ciller's reciprocal motion into Mr Erbakan's private finances was unexpectedly spiked by a cross party coalition, united less by their regard for the anti secular, pro Arab. Mr Etakan, than by their dislike the Ms Ciller.
Whatever the result of Saturday's vote and it is more likely that the government will fall than not Turkey's political future is unsure. A coalition involving the RP and either the Motherland or the True Path is the obvious answer, but one perhaps unacceptable to Turkey's secular, pro-Western establishment.
AFP adds Mr Yilmaz may resign from his post today, one of his close aides said yesterday. "I think there will be no need for the weekend's vote of no confidence." Mr Sadan Tuzcu said.