Canada elects Conservative minority as budget deficit looms

A GAMBLE by Stephen Harper, Canada's prime minister, to call an early election and gain a strong mandate has failed, after he…

A GAMBLE by Stephen Harper, Canada's prime minister, to call an early election and gain a strong mandate has failed, after he was handed another minority government - Canada's third in a row - on Tuesday.

Mr Harper's Conservative party won 143 of 308 parliamentary seats, a rise of 16 on his party's pre-election standing. The largest opposition party, the Liberals, won 76 seats, down 19 from before the election.

Amid economic uncertainty, Mr Harper's first task may be to prepare Canadians to accept the country's 11 consecutive budget surpluses may be coming to an end.

Because of this record, a negative budget balance is taboo for the country's politicians. "My resistance to running a deficit would be that history has shown there are no small deficits," Mr Harper said in Ottawa this month.

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That focus on maintaining a surplus meant the election campaign was devoid of discussion of deficit spending, in spite of an uncertain economic outlook. All five major parties pledged to keep Canada away from deficit.

But many economists suggest the country will be unable to stay in surplus during 2009, thanks largely to slides in US markets, for which almost 80 per cent of Canadian exports are destined, and a recent fall in the price of oil.

Mr Harper may also have to decide whether to respond to the growing number of western countries forced to guarantee their banks' equity. Canada's banks have remained stable so far.

The five-week election campaign struggled to find relevancy for many Canadians. Mr Harper put himself forward as a steady hand to manage the economy. But a renewed minority and what looks to be the lowest voter turnout in Canadian history suggest that approach fell on deaf ears.

Liberal leader Stéphane Dion will face questions about his leadership following his party's continued slide. Traditionally seen as Canada's "natural" governing party, the Liberals have lost significant support, and several contenders - including Harvard academic and television presenter Michael Ignatieff and former Ontario premier Bob Rae - are expected to push for change.

A rare bright spot for the Liberals was the election of Justin Trudeau, son of former prime minister Pierre Trudeau, to represent a marginal district in the suburbs of Montreal.

The continued success of the separatist Bloc Québécois - which won 50 seats in Quebec in spite of the dormant state of the independence movement - and the increasingly divided vote on the left make the quest for majority government an elusive one. - ( Financial Timesservice)