Beware of too bright a start

February was named after the Roman festival of purification, the Februa which took place around this period of the year

February was named after the Roman festival of purification, the Februa which took place around this period of the year. It was a time dedicated to a ritual cleansing of the spirit, and the Romans rather curiously observed it with much over-eating and other quite unmentionable forms of self-indulgence. But then it is hard to blame them: February is a dull, dark, cold, and often stormy month, with nothing much to recommend it but its brevity, and any attempted diversion from this meteorological austerity must surely be forgiven.

February weather, in fact, is very similar to that of January. The temperature climbs each day, on average, to about eight or nine Celsius. The air temperature drops below zero on eight or nine of the 28 days, and ground frost is in evidence on over half the mornings of the month.

To make things worse, February contains a "Buchan Cold Spell". Alexander Buchan, an astute Scottish schoolmaster of the last century, identified a number of periods that he suggested were consistently warmer or colder than the normal expectation for that time of year. Meteorologists, naturally, turn up their noses at any such suggestions of climatic cyclicality, but one of Buchan's cold spells is the period from February 7th to 14th, and if he is right for 1998, the February chill should be even more in evidence around that time than in other periods of the month.

A vigorous storm or two in February is not the exception, but the norm. The atmosphere in our northern hemisphere is at its most energetic around now, because the temperature contrast between the equator and the poles is greatest. The interaction between the very cold air to the north and the warmer air further south provides the stimulus for the development of deep depressions which sweep across the Atlantic and now and then wreak havoc on our shores.

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We should get an average of about half an hour more sunshine per day this month than we did in January - but mainly because there are more hours of daylight during which the sun may shine. But beware too bright a start to February!

There is an old belief that all hibernating animals awake for an hour or two at Candlemas - which is, of course, today - and emerge from their burrows to inspect the weather. If it is cloudy, they stay up - but if the weather is clear, the animals go back to sleep for another 40 days: they know from long experience that the premature brightness is a sign that the rigours of our winter are not over yet.