Now Easter hovers into view, with much hope it seems reposed in the collective commitment of the parties, writes Frank Millar, London Editor
It would seem Sinn Féin wasn't bluffing after all about its attitude to policing as part of any "acts of completion" deal to restore Northern Ireland's devolved government.
If that is so, it implies a serious misjudgment of the republican position by the Irish Government and the US administration as well as - though in fairness, to a lesser extent - the British. And it hardly augurs well for the "agreement" which the Taoiseach and British Prime Minister plan to unveil next week enabling Assembly elections on May 29th and the restoration of the power- sharing Executive thereafter.
It has to be said that Sinn Féin spokesmen, in public and in private, have been remarkably consistent on the if-and-when of a republican commitment to endorse the Police Service of Northern Ireland and take their seats on the Policing Board.
They repeatedly made plain that the amended legislative framework for which the SDLP claimed credit in the Weston Park negotiations in July 2001 would not suffice. At the very least such dogged public opposition seemed an unlikely means of preparing the republican constituency for a spectacular U-turn.
Yet serious political and official sources continued to whisper that the Sinn Féin leadership was dancing on the head of a pin, immersing itself in the detail of policing for which it had little grasp, effectively searching for cover for a crossing of the Rubicon it knew could not be indefinitely postponed.
Even after the alleged IRA spy ring at the heart of British government forced the suspension of the Assembly last autumn, Mr Ahern cheerily predicted political breakthrough by Christmas. The season of goodwill also featured heavily in American calculations as the presidential envoy, Mr Richard Haas, appeared to prioritise the policing issue over more traditional unionist demands for weapons decommissioning and assurances that the IRA's war was over.
Mr Hass's fix on policing seemed at times variously to surprise and perplex the British government. However, in what Mr Blair might call "big picture" terms the American envoy was driven by the understanding that a Sinn Féin commitment to support the police would in fact represent the most potent and authentic "act of completion" by the republican movement.
As Christmas came and went serious commentators revised their projected timetables for breakthrough from late January, to mid-February, then early March. In fairness the speculation was driven by a timetable for fresh elections which the British and Irish governments maintained was immovable . . . until they moved it. Now Easter hovers into view, with much hope it seems reposed in the collective commitment of the parties to rescue the Belfast Agreement next Thursday on the occasion of its fifth anniversary.
It might well happen. London continues to insist it has no idea of the likely shape and scale of an IRA move. At the same time the "shared understanding" of both governments is said to be specific as to what is required of the Provisionals to signal the end of their organisation as an active paramilitary force.
If the Provo offer falls conspicuously short of Mr Blair's "big steps" demand it might be difficult for Mr Ahern to press the British Prime Minister (at any rate, successfully) to nonetheless "reward" Sinn Féin with an election in which it hopes to eclipse the SDLP. The terms of the deal, after all, will set the context in which the decision to proceed to elections is judged by the Northern electorate. And there remains strong SDLP as well as Ulster Unionist suspicion that the republican offer might be calculated to prove just enough for Mr Blair while insufficient to enable Mr Trimble to commit his party to resume power-sharing.
If that was to be Mr Trimble's verdict on any deal emerging next week, would Mr Blair anyway proceed with an election to what, in those circumstances, would amount to a continued negotiation thereafter? The latest assessment by British sources is that the commitment to the election is now pretty much set in stone. However, they said that before the decision was taken to postpone the election to May 29th, and it must actually remain an open question.
Certainly Mr Blair would not be going blind into an election if told in advance that there was no guarantee of an Ulster Unionist return to government. The possible absence even of a firm UUP commitment to do so would also seem to raise the possibility that republicans might yet decline to expend all their capital now - in terms of decommissioning, ceasefire redefinition and so on - in anticipation of that further negotiation to come, possibly with a different unionist leadership.
London seems to harbour no fear that it could all still unravel at this point. With "convincing acts of completion" on all sides now, British sources anticipate a satisfactory election outcome, with a successful formal review of the agreement to follow in September so altering the atmospherics as to enable a resolution of the policing issue.
Again, that may well happen. However, we should be wary of such cosy forecasts because, again, they require us to assume that one of the key parties is bluffing. As of this writing senior Ulster Unionists confirm that Sinn Féin is - despite vehement Dublin denials - seeking to re-negotiate the "shared understanding" document and to secure a firm timetable for the devolution of policing and justice powers in the first half of the new Assembly's five-year term. The UUP by contrast is currently holding firm to the British- Irish text which holds out the prospect of a resolution of the issue by the later stages of the next Assembly. Unionist insiders have told The Irish Times they intend this to mean that Stormont ministers will not be exercising policing or justice powers until the third Assembly is elected in 2008.
Maybe, of course, it is the Ulster Unionists who are bluffing. On the other hand it may be that the process of "completion" proffered by Mr Blair and Mr Ahern next week will take many years to realise. And that, in the interim, politics in Northern Ireland will continue to be disfigured by the provision of a local administration which does not collectively support or share in responsibility for policing the territory and people it purports to govern.