A modest 5 per cent drop in alcohol sales as a result of the planned smoking ban would result in Exchequer losses of €157 million and 10,700 potential redundancies, it was claimed yesterday.
The chief author of a report on the economic impact of the smoking ban, Mr Peter Brennan of A&L Goodbody Consulting, said this estimate was "cautious". He said it was inevitable the ban would result in job losses and a fall in alcohol sales.
The report, commissioned by the Irish Hospitality Industry Alliance, estimates that the worst-case scenario, of a 30 per cent drop in alcohol sales, could cost the State almost €1 billion and result in 64,200 job losses.
The study also disputes the scale of the problem of environmental tobacco smoke and says it results in the deaths of 13 people employed in the hospitality industry a year, compared to claims of several hundred by the Minister for Health.
It also says the life expectancy of a Dublin bar worker, at 77, is in line with the national average.
Mr Brennan said the study showed the Government appeared set to take a decision in the absence of proper research which would have a major impact on the hospitality industry.
He said that based on an analysis of reports into the effects of environmental tobacco smoke, just two out of 145 reports made a categorical and significant link with cancer.
However, he conceded that estimates in the report on the cost of the ban to the Exchequer and on the number of deaths were based on "hypotheses" and described the estimated number of deaths related to environmental tobacco smoke as a "best guess".
The report says that compliance with the proposed ban on smoking in the workplace would oblige the owners of more than 16,000 venues to prepare safety and risk assessment statements, at a cost of around €33 million.
Enforcement would involve almost 150 full-time officials.
The alliance said the cost of enforcement would be better directed at funding an aggressive anti-smoking campaign aimed mainly at children and teenagers.
The study also questions whether the ban, as proposed, is justified, given its potential cost of up to €1 billion, compared to the estimated hospital costs to the State for smoking-related illnesses of around €127 million.
Mr Brennan said the ban would be the "most severe ban of its kind in the world" and said there was a need for dialogue to find a compromise solution.
Such a compromise could include improved ventilation, having designated smoking areas and the exemption of hotel bedrooms and small businesses.
The alliance's chairman, Mr Frank Murphy, said the report made for worrying reading in light of economic conditions.
"This document will hopefully be a wake-up call to policymakers to think through the full impact of the proposed ban on smoking in hospitality venues," he said.
