A do-nothing state has finally done something by calling an election, writes RICHARD PINE
AT LEAST the uncertainty of “will he, won’t he?” is over: prime minister Costas Karamanlis has called a general election for early October. He had little choice, with August’s forest fires the last straw in voter dissatisfaction with his administration. Vivid television images of the flames silhouetting the Parthenon heightened national awareness of the fact that the government has a “do nothing” policy on almost every front.
But the New Democracy (ND) government, which has been running on a single-seat majority for some months, is facing more than a seasonal discomfort. Voter apathy was exhibited in the June European elections when only 52 per cent went to the polls, but demonstrated their feeling by moving support from ND to some of the minor parties, including the Greens. As government support eroded, socialist Pasok, the main opposition party, gained ground simply by standing still. It now has a marginal lead over ND, but probably not enough to give it an overall majority after the election.
Which brings us to the new uncertainty that is the work not only of Karamanlis and Pasok’s George Papandreou but also of the leaders of all the minor parties, including Laos (the “people’s party”) on the right, and Syriza, a loose and indistinct amalgam of leftist parties. With the probable election outcome of a coalition government, none of the minor parties is prepared to indicate its intentions. Neither ND nor Pasok will at this stage contemplate getting into bed with partners who may well bring instability to an already unstable political environment. Needless to say, both are calling for an overall majority.
Karamanlis is widely reported to believe the contest is between himself and Papandreou, which, as an arrogant man, he expects to win. But voters will not see it that way: they want solutions to the huge problems of society, not least the reform of public administration which ND has done little to address since its victory in 2004. So far, neither party has shown the capacity to solve problems, or a strategy for doing so. In some respects, the country is ungovernable, and this has international ramifications.
A defeat for ND would be a major catastrophe for Greece’s foreign affairs, since it would remove the highly successful and high-profile foreign minister Dora Bakoyannis from office. But it might have a longer-term advantage in that ND defeat would almost certainly mean a leadership heave against Karamanlis, which Bakoyannis could very well win.
Greece’s position is pivotal in Balkan diplomacy at present, with relations with EU candidate Turkey in an on/off, hot/cold situation, the naming of the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia as a matter for delicate negotiation, and the economic future of southeast Europe under a major question mark, as so many other candidates for EU membership line up in such a volatile region.
The issues are clouded by the fact that there are at present four major scandals under scrutiny. The most serious is the Siemens bribery affair, which also implicates Pasok which was in government at the time, but the “Vatopedi” scandal (sale to the state by the Orthodox Church of land at much more than its true market value) undermines faith in church-state relations and the constitutional centrality of the church to Greek society.
A further cause of unrest is the disaffection of young people generally, especially after the riots in every major city last December after the police shooting of a teenager in Athens. Legislation to outlaw hoodies, as an anti-terrorist measure, took everybody by surprise and was shouted down on all sides. Resentment of security strategies to calm the explosive situation fuels the even more deep-seated frustration of young people at the lack of jobs, especially for highly skilled workers joining the labour market, which in turn reflects on the chaotic state of secondary and third-level education.
Most voters have said they would prefer Pasok to ND, but not with Papandreou as leader. Pasok had the chance to divest itself of Papandreou, in favour of a more charismatic and convincing leader, and might have had the courage to do so if it were not for the fact the family name is mantra-like in Greek politics. As the son and grandson of national heroes, Papandreou seems untouchable – or rather, indispensable. But younger voters are no longer willing to pay lip-service to such names, especially when success in politics depends very largely on membership of the professional classes rather than electoral merit or ideological argument.
The prospect of a Pasok-led coalition, with Papandreou as prime minister and some of the left-wing parties making up the numbers, is quite likely. Whether Pasok can articulate a sufficiently convincing way forward in their manifesto will be the main focus of the next few days.