With Kevin Barry and his comrades safely re-interred, the Fianna Fβil 75th Anniversary celebrated and the Opposition reduced to complaining about no isolation wards for persons who might be contaminated with anthrax, Bertie Ahern is still riding high. Even when the Government is caught with its trousers down, there is always somebody around like Joe Jacob to deflect attention from the Taoiseach.
Whatever about the anthrax scare, there is no question about the very real concerns that exist concerning the latest threat from Sellafield. Joe Jacob not only did damage to himself but also to the Government while, at the same time, Bertie manages to address the subject at the Ard Fheis as if he were in Opposition. Indeed, listening to his rhetoric on Sellafield one would never know that Mr Ahern and Fianna Fβil have been in Government for almost 12 of the last 14 years.
Drapier's agents report a smugness from last weekend at Citywest where the talk apparently was not whether Fianna Fβil will be back in Government after the election but rather which partner they would prefer: the PDs or Labour.
The man who will least approve of this complacency is Ahern himself. He is the most cautious politician around. Having scribbled on his pad the names of his would-be Cabinet in 1994, Dick Spring wrested the prize away from him. Ironically, it was probably the same Dick Spring, exhausted from almost five years as a successful Foreign Minister, who gave it back to him in 1997. It is believed in here it was Spring rather than John Bruton or Proins∅as de Rossa who opted for a June election. How different was the climate by November of the same year!
It's good to hear from the Kingdom that Spring is fighting fit and apparently he got a spontaneous ovation for an unheralded appearance at the Labour Party Conference in Cork. If the Shinners think they are going to make a breakthrough in Kerry they had better be prepared for the mother of all battles. Drapier is inclined to believe, whatever the local polls say, that neither Spring nor Fine Gael's Jimmy Deenihan are for the taking.
After the Colombian adventure and even before September 11th, vigilantism or taking over local policing, for example, is no longer a guarantee of electoral success. The mood has changed. Yours truly couldn't fail to notice at the ceremony last Sunday the firmness with which the protocol people prevented the Sinn FΘin contingent from assuming prominence. A year ago it is likely that a blind eye would have been turned.
Nothing short of taking the gun and the bomb and the punishment beatings out of politics will leave a future for Sinn FΘin. Times have changed and they have bobbed and weaved for long enough. People have had enough. As I write, there are expectations which this time must be fulfilled.
How quickly indeed the climate changes. When Bertie was tempted towards the end of the foot-and-mouth scare last May to rendezvous with the people, his Government was at its highest point.
He is now confronted with some real problems and a waning of the feel-good factor. The Aer Lingus crisis could not have emerged at a worse time. If Fianna Fβil/PDs do any less well than was done during the Cahill Plan by Fianna Fβil and Labour, it will take its toll against Fianna Fβil and not just in Dublin but also in the mid-west and Cork.
When the national carrier is at risk, the Moore McDowell, Michael O'Leary and Shane Ross triumphalism will count for nothing.
Bertie is already in trouble in Munster. Michael Noonan may not have caught fire as leader of Fine Gael but the party is satisfied that his work in the Munster constituencies will produce extra seats. In the same province Ruair∅ Quinn will be looking for a comeback by former TDs Kathleen Lynch and John Mulvihill or Joe Sherlock as well as to Senators Kathleen O'Meara and Brendan Ryan to take seats in Tipperary North and Cork South-Central. There will be a separate general election in each of 42 constituencies. When the fervour of the Ard Fheis abates, only the more excitable delegates will believe that a return of the present coalition is likely. All of this leaves Ruair∅ Quinn with a problem. Having won a handsome mandate at his own conference to retain his independence, Fianna Fβil has persuaded an all-too-susceptible media that he can be relied on at the end of the day to do his national duty, i.e., put Fianna Fβil back in office. However, the vote in Cork was for Ruair∅ Quinn, not for another Fianna Fβil-led government.
Although he has clearly signalled his own preference for a Labour/Fine Gael government, short of refining his electoral strategy further Ruair∅ seems unable to break the media consensus. But there is a long way to go. Bertie's Sellafield speech at Citywest has kicked off the longest General Election campaign in the history of the Republic.
Bertie says his abortion referendum will take place before that election but most colleagues in here interpreted Mary Harney as saying something like the opposite. It is a most extraordinary proposition that unless the Government, as in the case of judicial misconduct, can detect something called "consensus" it may not go ahead.
Was this the reason Bertie shelved the referendum he had promised on Partnership For Peace? That breach of promise helped defeat the Nice Referendum and Bertie is now all too pleased to seize on the Labour Party idea for a Forum on Europe. At least it postpones an awkward issue until after the election.
Long-fingering other issues will prove less convenient. The economic decline continues and will not be halted but could be exacerbated by the December Budget.