Ah, sure we'll all be grand

Amid the constant gloom, there is no dampening the Irish appetite for optimism, and our rate of smiling and laughing leaves happier nations in the doldrums. The greatest benefit of optimism is that it counteracts the corosive effets of pessimism, writes MAUREEN GAFFNEY

CAST YOUR MIND back to 2006. The Celtic Tiger is rampant. Ireland boasts the second-highest per-capita GDP in the world. We have begun to define ourselves in a new way: modern, prosperous, outward-looking and enterprising, taking a more assured place in the wider world. Other countries are beating a path to our door to find the secret of our success.

During that year, the Gallup Organization, as part of its regular global survey of well-being and optimism, asked Irish people about their lives. Respondents had to imagine a ladder with 10 steps, with the top rung of the ladder representing “the best possible life” and the bottom rung “the worst possible life”. They were then asked, “On which step of the ladder would you say you personally feel you stand at this time? On which step do you think you will stand about five years from now?”. Hardly surprisingly in that golden time, 76 per cent of Irish people were defined as “thriving”: rating their current lives at seven or above and the expectation of their future lives at eight or above. Ireland was barely behind the consistently top-ranked country, Denmark, where 79 per cent of people fell into the thriving category.

Now, fast-forward to 2010. Armageddon. The full scale of the banking and economic collapse has finally sunk in. The government is floundering. In December the game is up. We have to seek a national bailout. The airways are alight with forecasts of national doom. In that morning-after optimism, Gallup came back to ask the same questions. Astonishingly, Ireland still emerges in the top group of 10 nations in which a majority of people were managing to thrive despite the recession.

Battered and bruised certainly, the percentage of people in Ireland who are thriving had dropped to 54 per cent and we had slipped from eighth to 10th place. More people – 43 per cent – were now in the “struggling” category, with moderate well-being but with more daily stress and worry about money.Yet only 4 per cent are defined as “suffering”,with their well-being at high risk and their view of the future very negative. But, more astonishingly, in 2010 we were still ahead of the UK, the US and even Germany, the economic engine of the EU. In Germany, only 44 per cent were thriving, 52 per cent were struggling and 5 per cent were suffering. Or contrast our scores with those of other countries that had been, or were about to be, bailed out. In Spain, the rate of thriving was only 39 per cent, while in Greece it was 16 per cent. A whopping 25 per cent of Greeks were suffering.

So, while well being and optimism about the future are strongly linked to GDP, it is certainly not the whole story. Gallup captures this more psychological element of thriving with another set of questions about people’s day-to-day experiences. Do they feel well rested, respected and interested in things? Do they feel they are learning something new? How much are they enjoying their lives? How often do they smile and laugh? The Irish scored high on all those factors. And when it came to smiling and laughing we outstripped the top-ranking countries in northern Europe.

This must be at least part of the explanation for the persistence of Irish optimism even in adversity: our temperament. Even during the worst of times, we manage to knock some fun out of adversity. Our sense of humour has, almost singly-handedly, kept the country going during the darkest times. The now-famous “Angela Merkel thinks we’re working” banner expressed brilliantly that Irish exuberance and irrepressible humour; good-natured, slyly poking fun at ourselves and at Germany. But also signalling a kind of temperamental defiance.

In contrast to American optimism, for example, which could be called visionary, we tend not to look for that shining city on the hill. Irish optimism is more pragmatic. We may not be quite sure what lies ahead, but we remain confident that whatever it is, we will deal with it. That tolerance for ambiguity, even pleasure in it, is reflected in the ubiquitous use of the word “grand” in Ireland. “Grand” can mean a thousand things. It does not commit us to anything too high-flown. It maintains a pleasing ambiguity. It keeps us simultaneously alert for threat and opportunities; a characteristic of how optimists’ brains function. Pessimists, on the other hand, are solely focused on the possibility of threat and thereby miss opportunities.

Our optimism is also deeply rooted in another element of the Irish temperament; our pleasurable and lively engagement in our day-to-day lives. For all the lamentation about how the Celtic Tiger undermined our quality of life, for the most part, Irish people managed to use their new-found prosperity to relish their relationships with family and friends, to risk being more open and personally expressive and to develop and celebrate their sense of achievement and competence. Even when the bad times came, we continued to do that, albeit with a lot less money.

So when Irish people say, as they often do, “I’m just getting on with things” it suggests “I am battening down the hatches and focusing on the things I have control over and that still give me pleasure and purpose in my life.”

SO, DOES OPTIMISM matter? It does: even more than you might think.

Being optimistic is not just a happy accessory to life. It is a vital precursor to individual and economic well-being. But true benefits are associated only with a particular kind of moderate or realistic optimism. This is defined by psychological researchers in a very precise way and it is worth paying attention to every element of that definition. It is the belief that things will work out well in the end if you make an effort and if you persist in working towards those good outcomes with no guarantee that they will happen. It is the readiness to maintain a positive outlook in the absence of very definite evidence to the contrary. This last part is crucial because it depends on remaining open to disconfirming evidence, especially when that evidence does not suit your narrow point of view or may threaten your self-interest.

These are the elements that distinguish moderate optimism from a doctrinaire kind of “positive thinking” or gullible naivety, or denial of the real challenges to be faced. It is precisely because life is so tough, and because chronic fear, powerlessness and despondency are so debilitating, that we can’t face life effectively without optimism. It keeps hope alive when things look bad. It inspires confidence and an appetite for challenge, and it encourages persistence in the face of setbacks, with very profound effects on psychological functioning.

Optimists, compared with their more pessimistic counterparts, are happier and more contented with life and cope more effectively. They make better choices and are more productive. Optimism buffers you from the ordinary stresses of life and also from extreme stress; that is probably why optimists are healthier. Optimism substantially reduces your risk of becoming ill. Even if you do get sick, it helps you deal more effectively with the illness and, in many cases, to survive longer.

The protective effects of optimism are particularly strong for cardiovascular disease. Take one of the most dramatic findings. The largest study yet to investigate whether optimism can reduce mortality from heart disease followed nearly 100,000 women over eight years. It found that the most optimistic women suffered nearly a third fewer deaths due to heart disease than the women who were most pessimistic.

These relationships held, irrespective of the women’s socioeconomic status, original health status or lifestyle habits. In other words, the protective effect of optimism held whether the women were rich or poor, and even if they smoked, drank and took little exercise. The effect of optimism on cancer is not as clear-cut as it is with heart disease. But studies show that if you get cancer, an optimistic outlook helps you to deal more effectively with the psychological impact and to survive longer.

An important aspect of optimism is that it challenges and reduces the corrosive effects of pessimism. Whether it takes the form of hopelessness or cynical hostility, pessimism is associated with an increased risk of death from all causes, including heart disease and cancer, and hastens the progress of these diseases. You might think that one of the few advantages of being a pessimist is that since you expect the worst, you might be prompted to take care of your health. Not so. Among patients being treated for heart disease, optimists are more successful at lowering their levels of coronary risk by losing weight, eating healthily and taking more exercise. Optimistic gay men who were HIV-positive were more likely to practise safe sex.

Some people like to practise “defensive pessimism”; they focus on the possibility of failure, persuading themselves that if they imagine and expect the worst that this will make it easier to deal with it if it happens. It won’t. The evidence is that dread just amplifies the impact of the bad things that do occur. And the longer we dread something, the worse its impact when it happens.

Perhaps the greatest benefit of optimism is that it is a self-fulfilling prophecy. When we set optimistic expectations for ourselves, we make it more likely that we will make them a reality. Consider the classic, and ethically dubious, experiment conducted in the 1960s in which teachers were given false information about some of their students. They were told that these particular students – who had in fact been selected at random – had received high scores on a new test of “learning readiness”, and were on the cusp of rapid intellectual growth. Such were the positive expectations created by these “results” that the teachers spent more time with these students, gave them more detailed feedback and more encouragement in class. By the end of the year, the students who had been randomly selected actually scored higher on IQ tests than children who had showed the same IQ scores at the beginning of the year but who were not part of the experiment.

MOST PARENTS instinctively present an optimistic picture of the future to their children. They encourage them to have confidence in themselves and in their capabilities.

Parents even talk up their children’s talents. They urge them to believe that the world will reward effort and persistence, even when they know there is no absolute guarantee that that will happen. And the evidence on the impact of this strategy is clear: optimistic, high expectations – combined, of course, with the high emotional and practical support necessary to achieve those expectations – makes for really good outcomes for the children themselves.

But you might argue that surely it is better to rear children so that they hold a balanced view of themselves, are objective about their strengths and weaknesses, and are realistic about the amount of control they have over many events in life? Not so. The evidence is that people with such a relentless objectivity about themselves and the world are moderately depressed. That’s worth thinking about. It suggests that in a world that is objectively full of threats and random events, with a future that is uncertain and unknowable, optimism not only buffers us against anxiety, stress and despondency, it gives us the courage and the daring to go on.

Those same benefits of optimism extend beyond the individual into the economy. A major study of what sustains the economic success of some countries and keeps others in poverty identified two key cultural determinants of economic success: one is a country’s openness to science and technology, and the other is optimism. Optimism gives people the courage and energy to constantly invent and innovate, to set up new enterprises, and to pick themselves up in the wake of national setbacks and failures. The author of the study, David Landes, put it best, saying “In this world the optimists have it, not because they are always right, but because they are positive. Even when wrong they are positive, and that is the way of achievement, correction, improvement and success. Educated eyes-open optimism pays; pessimism can only offer the empty consolation of being right.”

Dr Maureen Gaffney is adjunct professor of psychology and society at University College Dublin. Her book Flourishing (Penguin Ireland) is out in paperback.

What has been most striking is the positivity

With more than 100 people leaving Ireland every day last year and no sign of the outflow abating, there is no doubt that emigration has become a defining theme of our times. Through Generation Emigration, we have shared the stories of hundreds of these recent emigrants, many of whom have involuntarily left loved ones and loved places behind.

The circumstances of their departure are often difficult and sometimes heartbreaking; but what has been most striking about the series as a whole is the positivity that shines through.

Contributors have shown a resolute determination, despite difficult circumstances, to take control of their futures and get on with creating a better life for themselves and their families, even if that life is far away from what they have always known as “home”.

The majority of recent emigrants surveyed by Ipsos/MRBI for The Irish Times in March reported being happier than they were in Ireland, with better jobs, a healthier lifestyle and an ability to save money every month. More than half of them had emigrated vountarily, and almost all of those who were unemployed before they left Ireland had managed to find work. For many, especially the young, the opportunity to live and work abroad is embraced for the adventure and life experience it brings.

One entrant to The Irish Times "Why you love where you live" competition for emigrants this week summed up the attitude of many of the people we have spoken to over the past nine months. From his new home in Dubai, James Taplin sees a future for himself and his young family, a future that was obscured by unemployment and debt in Ireland. Leaving that unhappiness behind has given him "a reason to prosper and a desire to succeed". It would be difficult to find a more emphatic declaration of positivity against the odds. CIARA KENNY

The developing world is powering ahead

These are not good times for optimists. Profound economic weakness at home and the most serious crisis in Europe since the middle of the last century mean the short-term outlook is bleak, if not plain frightening. But widen the angle and things look rosier.

The developing world is powering ahead. In Asia, hundreds of millions of people have been lifted out of extreme poverty in recent decades and in Africa, where so little development took place for so long, many “African lion” economies are booming.

Over the very long term, the planet's inhabitants have been living longer, healthier and more comfortable lives. Driving humanity's (admittedly unsteady) progress is our species' unlimited capacity to come up with new and better ways of doing things. And the rate of innovation is accelerating. According to the World Intellectual Property Organisation, for instance, the number of patents filed globally doubled from one million in the mid 1990s to two million by 2010. We are inventive, problem-solving beings. In the end that will see us through. DAN O'BRIEN

Our people are young, friendly, funny and good-natured

Reason(s) to be cheerful? We live on a beautiful, under-populated island with a climate not given to excess (rain excepted) on a stable part of the Earth's crust (apart from Mayo, God help us), where food is plentiful and the best. Our standard of living is high, while its cost is coming down. Our people are young, friendly, funny, good-natured and citizens of one of the oldest, most stable democracies in Europe. Education levels are high while incidence of crime is low. We have a rich traditional culture, play a wider range of sports than most, and are even good at some. Our history is awful but it has enabled us sing in defeat and create a world-class literature. It has also helped us see our problems as of the "glass half full" variety. The rest is weather. PATSY McGARRY

The days of paying full price for anything are gone

Back when Bertie Ahern was king and times were supposed to be good, Irish people were constantly being made to look like fools. We were screwed at every turn by mobile phone companies, supermarkets, solicitors, clothes shops, builders, painters, carpenters and almost everyone else who provided any class of service.

We were virtually made to get down on bended knee and beg infuriatingly rude companies to take our money in return for some class of slapdash service that would inevitably be delayed because they were too busy counting the cash to bother doing what we paid them for.

Well, the shoe is on the other foot now and some of the worst offenders might forgive us a little shaudenfraude if we give them a good kicking for the next 10 years.

The days of paying full price for anything are gone. It doesn't matter if you're talking about a packet of chocolate digestives, a weekend break in a high-end hotel, an extension for your house – or an actual house – there is no way in the world you should even consider shelling out the ridiculous sums that were the norm during the boom. If someone charges you too much, there will always be someone else prepared to do it for less. CONOR POPE

The economy will recover slowly and in a sustainable way

The past few years have been very difficult for many people. But Ireland is a far more prosperous country than it was during the last recession in the 1980s. We have a high standard of living in global terms. We are a settled democracy. We have peace on the island. In four years' time, we celebrate the centenary of the Easter Rising, the catalyst for nationhood. The collapse of the Celtic Tiger hit many people economically but also allowed many people rediscover other important values besides material ones. Our language survives. People remain curious and friendly. We are more environmentally aware. There is a great sense of community and volunteering. Some of the visual blight caused to urban and rural landscapes will be undone. We will welcome back those who had to leave. The economy will recover – not spectacularly or quickly, but slowly and in a sustainable way. When it does, Ireland will be almost without equal. HARRY McGEE