Prices down 60%

THE CSO says house prices have fallen nationally by 43 per cent since 2007

THE CSO says house prices have fallen nationally by 43 per cent since 2007. MyHome and Daft say they’re down by 42 per cent and 48 per cent respectively.

But agent Sherry FitzGerald says they’ve fallen by 57.5 per cent nationally, and by a whopping 62.3 per cent in Dublin since the peak of the market.

What are buyers and sellers to make of it all? All the figures are accurate as far as they go, but are based on different information. The CSO bases its figures on mortgage drawdowns. MyHome and Daft base theirs on asking prices – but houses aren’t necessarily selling for those amounts.

Sherry Fitz economist Marian Finnegan says that in effect, prices are back to 2001 levels, basing this “on live up-to-date market analysis without any lag which an analysis of mortgage drawdowns is subject to”.

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DNG boss Keith Lowe agrees with Sherry Fitz that average prices across Dublin are down around 58/60 per cent since the peak of the market in March 2006.

“We base that on a basket of properties that we revalue each quarter.

“The CSO figures are very credible but don’t reflect the fact that one in three buyers in Dublin are cash buyers.”

And of course the percentage drop depends a lot on location: properties that sold for over €500,000 in good times are down by around 67 per cent says Lowe. In south Dublin, the average fall is 63 per cent, in north Dublin, 58 per cent and in west Dublin, 54 per cent. (The real high-flying properties can expect worse again – like the 78 per cent drop in Derek Quinlan’s Shrewsbury Road house.)

Both DNG and Sherry FitzGerald are basing their figures on actual prices achieved for homes they have sold.

Everyone of course is asking how low can prices go. Says Lowe “My opinion is that prices will continue to fall until we have a fully-functioning mortgage market.”

Ed Carey, residential chief of the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland (SCSI), says agents know prices are down 50 to 60 per cent – but says it’s time to move away from using the peak of the market as a reference point.

“If I have to sell a house, what I need to know is how much it might make today.” You’ll find that out, he says, by calling local agents.

If we had a property price register of course, we could check this at the click, well, of a mouse (check out Mouseprice.com to see how easy it is to get information across the water.)

In the meantime, let’s hope that the Government plans to keep its promise of passing the law setting up a register before Christmas.