Houses close to rail link will jump 10% in price, says agent

LUAS - "Like Underbidders After Shrewsbury" quipped a delighted managing director of Hamilton Osborne King, Aidan O'Hogan, in Dublin last week, when he forecast that property prices near Dublin's proposed Flight rail system could rise by "upwards of" 10 per cent.

Houses within a five-to-ten minute walk of the transport system would definitely increase in value, he said.

Mr O'Hogan was addressing the Irish Property and Facilities Managers' Association (IPFMA) annual conference in University College, Dublin, on the theme of "the return of the tram".

As controversy still continues over deferment of the Ballymun leg of the light rail system, work on the Dundrum and Tallaght routes is due to begin next year. This will be subject to a public inquiry under the new LRT legislation, and a separate EU inquiry into the cost benefit aspects from an economic and social point of view.

The greatest residential concentration is on the southern leg, running on the old Dundrum/Harcourt Street line from the PYE site in Dundrum via Windy Arbour, Milltown, to Ranelagh, Charlemont Place, St Stephen's Green West, Dawson Street and O'Connell Street, Mr O'Hogan noted in his speech.

The western line will run from The Square in Tallaght via Tallaght Hospital, Belgard Road, across the M-50 motorway, to James's Street via Inchicore, to Heuston Station, Smithfield, Abbey Street and O'Connell Street. The northern leg, over which there is still a question mark, was due to run to Ballymun through Drumcondra and Collins Avenue.

The one negative impact will be disruption during the construction period, Mr O'Hogan agreed. Already, city centre office-holders had been showing symptoms of panic, he said, compounded by the increased cost of such locations and the parking problems. Luas would "open up the suburbs" to offices, while "straddling" areas, like Charlemont Place near Harcourt Street, would prove to be attractive.

The city centre would also be "pretty vulnerable" during this period in the retail sector. Schemes directly accessible to the route, such as the PYE scheme in Dundrum and The Square in Tallaght, were bound to benefit. However, he said Henry Street and the new Jervis Street shopping complex would receive a great boost.

The contrasting views of the Dublin City Centre Business Association (DCCBA) and the Dublin Chamber of Commerce were highlighted at the conference, which was attended by about 100 representatives of the property management sector.

The positive view was expressed by Michael Ryder, chairman of the DCCBA, who warned that Dublin was contracting "arteriosclerosis" and would suffer terminal illness unless there was a long-term cure - through full implementation of the Dublin Transportation Initiative (DTI). However, Dublin Chamber of Commerce expressed concern about the effect of the construction work over two-to-three years.

Noel Carroll, the chamber's new chief executive, said his organisation did not want to appear to be an opponent, but wanted to see a full debate on the Government decision to implement the DTI recommendations, of which Luas was one component. Experience in Strasbourg and Sheffield had shown that businesses could lose 25 to 30 per cent of revenue during construction.

This lost business did not return, and shopping patterns changed permanently, Mr Carroll said, while acknowledging that provision had been made in the draft legislation, published by the Government, for compensation.

Alan Jones of Steer Davies Gleave, the DTI transport planning consultants, said disruption was "controllable", and continued access was the responsibility of CIE as the developer. Comparisons with schemes like Sheffield, where there were competing transport interests and no integrated transport plan, were misleading, he said. There are some 300 light rail systems worldwide, and for every one that did not work well there were 25 that were a success, he said. Charles Costello, chairman of the IPFMA and property manager with Superquinn, said his association was taking no position on Luas and aimed to encourage debate.

"The Government has simply moved ahead with the fastest and most economical option, but there are those who believe that it may not be the right decision, and those questions should be asked," he said. Some observers were concerned at the failure to consider underground routes, partial or otherwise, he said - to avoid disruption in areas like Smithfield, where people were going to be moved from their homes.