Opinion in England, Scotland and Wales now favours Irish unity, according to major new research.
In the past, research has tested the waters about opinions in Great Britain taken as a whole towards Irish unification. Now, however, new research sheds light on the differing attitudes held about such an outcome among the English, the Scots and the Welsh separately.
The information is included in an analysis of the 2023 State of the Union survey probing attitudes towards constitutional issues in the UK carried out by leading academics, Ailsa Henderson and Richard Wyn Jones.
Instead of getting a simple Yes, No answer from those polled, people were asked to place their attitudes about unification and other issues on a sliding scale from minus 10, or Definitely Not, to plus 10, Definitely Yes.
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Asked if Northern Ireland should unite with the Republic, Scots placed themselves at 1.9 on the positive side of the scale, England came in at 0.9, Wales at 0.6, even with those polled in Northern Ireland at 0.6 on the positive scale in favour.
However, the detailed breakdown illustrates sharp divisions in NI society, with 31 per cent saying Irish unity is something they “definitely do not want”, while a slightly smaller number, 28 per cent, say they “definitely do want it”.
“Attitudes about reunification are strikingly different. Attitudes in Northern Ireland itself fall very near the midpoint. But the electorates in England, Scotland and Wales are each more supportive of reunification,” say the two academics.
The findings, though more complicated than simple Yes, No questions, are significant, says professor of political science at the University of Edinburgh, Ailsa Henderson, who will present findings on Thursday in Belfast at the Imagine! festival.
“The balance in England and Wales is negative towards independence for Scotland and about independence for their own territories. What is noteworthy about attitudes to NI, however, is that everyone in England, Scotland and Wales is above the midpoint about its future,” she says, emphasising the word “everyone”.
And there is drift in the numbers compared with the 2021 State of the Union Survey: “We have seen opinion in Northern Ireland [about unification] move to the other side of the midpoint. Barely, but it is now above the midpoint,” she says.
Scotland is most enthusiastic about independence for Northern Ireland, along the lines of “Go forth and prosper, friend”, but support for Irish unity in Wales and England could be interpreted more negatively, rather like wishing for the departure of a problem.
The Scottish view, says Henderson, is “a genuine wish” for Irish unity and for Northern Ireland to have the constitutional future that it wants to have: “So, if we can’t break free, then maybe you can, that sort of thing.
“There are different reasons in different parts of the UK explaining the views taken about Northern Ireland leaving the Union. In England, it’s probably more the ‘bugger off’ variety. In Scotland, it’s probably, ‘Go and live your best life’.
“The idea that a majority in three nations in a multi-state union with varying levels of intensity favour the departure of the fourth nation in that union is highly unusual,” says Richard Wyn Jones, professor of Welsh politics and director of Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre.
“This is very significant. Attitudes towards Northern Ireland look very, very different from attitudes elsewhere. It is highly unusual in a multinational state, or whatever you describe the UK as, that the aggregate in Scotland and England and Wales is that Ireland should be unified,” he says.
However, he cautions: “What is different about what we are doing is to take the UK seriously as a four-territory state.
“It is very difficult to get comparative data. People usually talk about ‘attitudes in Britain’ without disaggregating England and Wales.
“We take the UK seriously as a four-territory state. We need to be slightly cautious about whether attitudes are developing. We can’t tell you what was going on five years ago, or 10 years ago.
“One would need to be quite careful about jumping to any big conclusions,” he says. However, attitudes about Brexit shown in the 2021 survey offers some guidance, Henderson says, since 62 per cent of Leave voters in England, 69 per cent of those who voted for Brexit in Wales then regarded the Irish Sea “border” as a price worth paying for Brexit.
“It is also the case that more than half of voters in England and Wales say they either wanted an Irish Sea border anyway, or that it is a price worth paying for Brexit,” the 2021 survey carried out by the same two academics records.
“There is this sense that Northern Ireland is seen as a more expendable part of the United Kingdom than other parts. But it’s also the case that every time we ask about Northern Ireland, the “don’t know’ figures just jump through the roof,” says Henderson.
The political controversy in London over recent years about the post-Brexit landscape perfectly mirrors attitudes held by a majority in England and Wales and, to a lesser extent, Scotland about the future of NI, says Wyn Jones.
“The bottom line is the fact that Northern Ireland, from a unionist perspective, has been sacrificed for Brexit is entirely consistent with public attitudes in the rest of the UK,” said Wyn Jones.
“The views about Northern Ireland and the territorial integrity of the UK in relation to it are different from attitudes towards the territorial integrity of Great Britain. There’s an obvious difference there,” he says.
Questions about the share of Treasury funding going to each of the UK nations reveal significant disagreements about the sums allocated under the long-standing, but complicated Barnett Formula.
“We’re able to demonstrate quite consistently that everyone thinks their own part is getting less, and everyone outside England thinks that England is the one that’s getting more,” says Henderson.
However, attitudes in England towards the money that Northern Ireland gets from the Treasury – even though NI argues that it is not getting a fair share – “are much more benign than they are about Scotland’s share of resources”.
“The Scottish question is always the one that causes the greatest negativity in England. Northern Ireland doesn’t seem to tap into the English sense of grievance in the same way that Scotland does,” she says.
So what does all this say about the durability of the United Kingdom? For Wyn Jones, it shows that attitudes are focused close to home: “What politicians often project as commitment to the UK and the Union just isn’t there in public attitudes,” he says.
Agreeing, Henderson says the attachment to the UK’s territorial integrity stops “at the borders of Great Britain and does not extend to NI in the same way it does if people there contemplate the departure of Scotland or England or Wales”.
* An error has been corrected where Prof. Wyn Jones was quoted as describing the UK as “a four-nation” state, when he, in fact, described it as “a four-territory” state.
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