Time now for parties to reflect on a mess of their own making

Last week I said that rushing a decision in either business or politics was unsound management, and indeed so it proved to be…

Last week I said that rushing a decision in either business or politics was unsound management, and indeed so it proved to be. The impulsive and professionally immature manner in which an amendment to the Electoral Bill seeking to ban opinion polls was handled by the Government, and the glaring lack of understanding of the technical and ethical nuances of market and political research which characterised the entire episode over the past 10 days, beggars description and belief.

It was by far the greatest political mess voluntarily created by any Government in my memory, and it is now apparent that before taking such a radical and unprecedented decision, the Government might have taken advice from a number of sources.

It is not clear whether the Government was given legal advice (which per se was another deficiency in the presentation), but since a similar amendment was withdrawn in 1991 it is apparent that up-to-date formal legal advice should have been obtained before further decisions were taken.

Advice from a sociologist would have alerted the Government to the likely adverse reaction of electors being deprived of their freedom of expression and constitutional rights (as some of them described it), which they had enjoyed through opinion polling on an uninterrupted basis for the past 30 years.

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Finally, advice from an experienced market research professional should have highlighted the existence of two loopholes in the amendment, one of which was eloquently identified in Seanad Eireann this week by independent Senator Shane Ross. The Government might also have been advised on the nature of the technical pronouncements which should have been avoided.

The suggested rationale for banning the taking of political opinion polls reflected a startling and, in the circumstances, unacceptable lack of knowledge of the technical and ethical standards and procedures of market research.

For the past 25 years, millions of pounds has been spent on confidential market and political research conducted for the purpose of providing information towards better decisions.

Hundreds of private political research projects have been conducted in Ireland for parties and individual candidates, most of which have contributed to a successful outcome. The fact that findings are not released to the open market-place is the sine qua non of good market research.

Many speakers did not help the cause by making statements which those of us in the profession knew to be blatantly misleading.

For instance, in saying that "the banning of opinion polls for one week, compared favourably with the European situation", ignores the crucial point that the taking of opinion polls is not banned in any European country.

The publication of polls is prohibited in some countries, but in the Irish context the proposed ban on the actual taking of the poll represented a danger to Article 40, which guarantees the right to freely express convictions and opinions. Comparisons with Europe are irrelevant in this context.

SENATOR Ross is to be congratulated on his initiative, and he will always be remembered as the person who put a stop to a foolhardy expedition. The Government has good reasons to appreciate the independent senator, since it was heading for a public relations disaster.

Some overseas media had already directed ridicule in its direction, saying the Government had foolishly decided to take on the entire media, the golden rule of politics being that no Government should do this.

For some reason, both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have backed off using the TG4/MRBI poll as an excuse for the ban, and while the professional analysis showed that the findings as on June 23rd, precisely mirrored the outcome, this is not the real issue.

The fact that both parties reacted negatively indicates a deficiency in their respective capabilities to analyse the report constructively in their own interests.

This has been done on numerous occasions by party analysts following the publication of Irish Times/MRBI campaign polls in the past, and all candidates were fortunate to have been given a credible framework by TG4 to plan the final days of the campaign.

A positive constructive analysis, followed by a focused follow-through on the ground by Fianna Fail, would have seen Michael Maguire survive to the third count. Of course, a similar positive response by Phil Prendergast and her supporters could have offset this.

However, the action standards were there for all. For this reason, MRBI has provided copies of all Irish Times/MRBI reports to all parties who requested them over the past 20 years.

The Fine Gael decision to table the initial amendment is inexplicable. The party had made very constructive and successful use of political polling in the past, and in some respects could be seen to have pioneered its use. Furthermore, in pushing the amendment, the party had no fallback position. Fianna Fail has Charlie McCreevy's pre-election Budget.

All politicians will now enjoy what the Government claimed to have been striving for - a time for calm reflection, and during the summer recess, mindsets will be rested and refocused. Hopefully also, hypocrisy and undemocratic expediency will be deleted from the political vocabulary.

Jack Jones is chairman of the Market Research Bureau of Ireland