Always the best barometer of critical, if not necessarily commercial, worthiness in the music industry, the Mercury Music Prize is the one the musicians really want to win; it's not as style-led, record company-led, or ghettoised as any number of Brits and Brats. Introduced a number of years back to reward "artistic excellence", the Mercury recognises all forms of modern music genres from disco-pop to goth and neo-classical to drum'n'bass.

It has always proved itself as a contrary beast, ignoring as it does the amount of "units shifted" in favour of beard-stroking ruminations on whether an album significantly adds to the creative canon of popular music. This has resulted in fascinating results over the years, such as when folkie Norma Waterson fared better than Oasis in 1996, or Radiohead were roundly trounced by Roni Size and Reprazent last year.

The Mercury is given to the best British or Irish album of the calendar year from June to June and is selected by a panel of industry heads, journalists and various other interested parties. Although its cash value is only £20,000 (which the bands typically donate to charity) its real commercial value is massive, since record stores heavily promote the 12 shortlisted albums and the winning album usually sells bucket-loads in the weeks after the prize. Despite all the talk about the Irish music industry and other assorted rubbish, the Irish have never fared well in the Mercury, with only U2 and Therapy? making the shortlist over the years, although My Bloody Valentine did make the "longlist" in 1992 and apparently Galway's Perry Blake made the "longlist" this year. Here, then, are this year's toppermost of the poppermosts, with the bookies' odds in brackets after each one:

1. Pulp: This Is Hardcore

Remarkable for the fact that their last three albums (Boys And Girls, Different Class and this new one) have all been nominated for the prize - something of a record in itself. Despite being greeted by quizzical looks by the critics and being a box-office flop, Pulp's sleazy and seedy approach again sees them in the running. Although, as Portishead will tell them, because they won in 1986 they've no chance of winning again. (12/1)

2. Propellerheads: Decksandrumsandrockandroll

Surprising in that it's the only out-and-out dance record on the shortlist this year. After The Prodigy and The Chemical Brothers made Mercury a dance-friendly affair, if this is the best British dance can come up with, you can re-run those "music industry in crisis" headlines. The token "beats" nominee. (12/1)

3. Asian Dub Foundation: Rafi's Revenge

A band who aspire to the visceral and political heights of Public Enemy and The Clash but fall a bit short. Nevertheless this is a semi-enthralling album and as about as "explosive" as music gets these days. New technology with old slogans. Not at all bad. (9/1)

4. The Verve: Urban Hymns

The clear bookie's favourite and the obvious front runner, Urban Hymns was a massive vindication for a band who were down and out just two short years ago. Replete with the massive hits Bittersweet Symphony and The Drugs Don't Work, it really was the soundtrack to many a music buyer's year. If only the band had the good sense to officially break up before the result is announced, they'd walk away with it. As it is, it's maybe just a bit too obvious a winner for the very independent-minded panel. (2/1)

5. Massive Attack: Mezzanine

There's yet to be a review written of this record that hasn't included the words "dark" and "brooding", but beneath all the angsty antics, Mezzanine shows proof positive that Massive Attack are the most interesting British band of their generation. Seeing as there was no Mercury Prize around when the startling Blue Lines was released, the Bristol boys might just walk away with the prize for their contribution to music over the years. (5/1)

6. 4-Hero: Two Pages

There's always one or two nominations of this type on the shortlist. An obscure grouping of musicians with an equally obscure but interesting sound, this was nominated, according to the panel, for having "a rhythmic framework within which harmonic textures drift and mesh to form a compelling musical soundtrack". Despite all that it's way out at 16/1.

7. Cornershop: When I Was Born For The 7th Time

If it weren't for the hit Brimful Of Asha, it's doubtful that this album would have made it anywhere near the top 12. A very Mercury-type choice, but there really isn't enough on the whole album to warrant this. (10/1)

8. Catatonia: International Velvet

Again it's difficult to see beyond the singles on this album, as apart from Mulder And Scully and Road Rage, this is very much indie ordinaire. You could be cruel and call it the token Welsh nomination or even, with all respect to Cerys Matthews, the token female nomination. Post-Britpop mediocrity. If the Mercury are looking for things Welsh, they should have looked no further than The Super Furry Animals. (6/1)

9. John Surman: Proverbs And Songs

A compelling mix of choir, church organ and saxophone. Very neo-classical in tone, Surman's work (it seems a bit low-brow to call it an album) was recorded live in Salisbury Cathedral - as opposed to The Camden Falcon, that is - and is a spooky, yet oddly moving affair. (16/1)

10. Robbie Williams: Life Thru A Lens

Not such a big shock, when you consider that Take That and The Spice Girls have been nominated in years past. Here Robbie puts a match to his boy band image and valiantly tries to recreate himself as an Oasis-lite rock god. That Angles song sounds suspiciously too much like Bryan Adams for my liking. Hasn't a hope but the bookies have it at 6/1 regardless.

11. Gomez: Bring It On

A real surprise nomination. Gomez are a new band from Sheffield, but they sound like they were born in the Mississippi delta and have been playing swamp blues all their lives. Indie meets blues: I'm surprised the marketing people didn't think of that one before. (9/1)

12. Eliza Carthy: Red Rice

Again, this could be seen as the token folk nomination; but Carthy's album genuinely merits her inclusion here. The daughter of past nominee Norma Waterson and famed folk singer Martin Carthy, Eliza introduces some surprisingly effective electronic touches to her album. A dark horse nomination. (16/1)

So there you have it. My money is going on Massive Attack with a side-bet on Eliza Carthy, even though it looks like there's no stopping The Verve. This year's winner will be announced on September 16th, and the event will be broadcast live on both BBC2 and BBC Radio 1.