"It's carnage out there. Some venues will close"

The big names - Kings of Leon, Snow Patrol, Oasis - can still sell out Slane or the 02, but smaller venues are experiencing poor sales and low turnouts. A lot of bands could spend 2009 playing to half-empty rooms, writes Jim Carroll

AT FIRST glance, you'd think live music promoters were making out like bandits. Look at the headlines - they're all about sold-out shows.

Nearly every show at Harry Crosbie's 02 venue in Dublin's docklands seems to sell out within seconds of going on sale. If you want to see Coldplay or Kings Of Leon and check out the box-fresh venue in December, you had better be prepared to negotiate with an eBay tout for the privilege, because tickets for those shows are long gone.

From AC/DC and Snow Patrol to Lionel Richie and Chris Brown, it seems Irish music fans are happy to spend a lot of time - and money - in the 02 in 2009.

Then, there are the 80,000 people who pulled out their credit cards to buy tickets for the Oasis show at Slane Castle next June. That's €6.12 million banked in one day - enough to keep Noel Gallagher in Brunches and Silvermints for some time to come.

But these examples come from the top end of the business, where the acts are already established and have a track record of drawing crowds. It's a different story when you go down the food-chain. It's here's, in the middle market and below, you'll find the recession really biting. With poor ticket sales and abysmal turnouts, a lot of bands could spend 2009 playing to half-empty rooms.

WHY MIDWEEK GIGS ARE A WASTE OF TIME

When promoters move shows to smaller venues, it's usually due to low ticket sales. POD Concerts nixed their ambitious autumn run at the Irish Museum of Modern Art (Imma) in Dublin and switched the Seasick Steve, Aimee Mann and Heaven 17 shows to the National Stadium or Tripod instead.

And reports of promoters giving away free tickets to poorly-selling shows to take the empty look off the venue (and prop up bar sales) are rife.

Those who work in the live music scene admit that many shows are failing to attract punters. However, few are prepared to go on the record about it.

"It's carnage out there at the moment and some venues will shut up shop as a result of all this," said one venue booker. "Putting on gigs during the week is a waste of time unless it's for a proven act. And even then, you have to put in more work than before to fill the room."

While a promoter or venue could afford to take a hit on one or two poorly attended shows in the past, the fact that entire weeks of shows are now under-performingis causing problems. Losses are mounting as venue owners and promoters struggle to find the cash to cover the band's guaranteed fee, staff wages, promotion for the show, performing royalties and all the other costs associated with a live music event.

THE ACCOUNTING CROWS AND THE BOTTOM LINE

So what has caused all this? There's no doubt that the downturn in the local and global economies has played a huge part. Many people don't have the cash or the inclination to go to shows as often as they may once have done.

Counting Crows frontman Adam Duritz recently claimed that global financial woes prompted his band to postpone their forthcoming European tour, including a December date at Dublin's 02.

"The fact that every currency in the world is acting a yo-yo at the moment also means that it's very difficult for anyone, bands and promoters alike, to make a deal," he said.

"No one has any way of knowing if cutting a deal in Australian dollars or US dollars or the euro or the pound is going to turn out to be a be a good thing or bankrupt you. It makes international tours tough to figure out."

But changes in how the music industry operates have also had a significant effect. A slump in revenue from music sales and advances from record labels mean bands have to tour more and sell more merchandise to make up the shortfall.

In theory, it's a great idea because people like going to see live music. In practice, however, a few flaws have emerged. Acts which would previously have played Ireland once a year at most have now become regular visitors. Bon Iver's National Stadium show next week will be his third Dublin show in six months (tellingly, there are still tickets on sale for it), while this year the likes of Holy Fuck, Lykke Li, Fleet Foxes, Why? and others played here twice within six months.

Some of these acts are returning because of demand - Fleet Foxes could have sold out three Vicar Street shows with ease earlier this month - but many are returning simply because they're touring Europe again and Ireland is on their radar.

The show you will see on the act's second visit is usually more or less the same show you will have seen earlier in the year, as the band will not always have any new material to play. This particularly applies when an act is touring their first album and want to make the most of the exposure. Such constant touring means some bands appear tired and lethargic on stage, visibly unable to cope with the rigours of the road.

HOLY F**K! ARE THEY BACK AGAIN?

A couple of years ago, on a return visit, a band would step up to a bigger venue and increase their audience. Now, sales for "second time around" shows are, at best, on a par with previous ones.

"A band like Holy Fuck played in Whelan's in April or May and did good business," points out one live music industry observer. "Then, they came back and played the Academy, but the audience didn't increase. I think audiences are sick and tired of seeing the same bands coming back again and again."

Such audience fatigue means people are beginning to give a lot of return bands a miss. They reckon the band will be back again before very long or will turn up at a festival. Word-of-mouth reports of the previous gig may also not have been so hot.

Promoters, therefore, find themselves in a Catch 22 situation. If they don't book a new act because they fear the band won't sell, one of their rivals might jump in. No one wants to lose out on an act that turns out to be the new Arcade Fire or Bloc Party.

However, if a promoter books the act and the show does not sell, he or she will still have to pay the band their fee, cover all the other costs involved and the band may accuse them of making a hames of promoting the show. If a gig is a success, it's all down to the band - but if the gig's a flop, it's always the promoter's fault.

Even if the promoter pulls a show due to poor ticket sales - an increasingly common occurrence usually filed under "unforseen circumstances" in the press release - they will still be out of pocket.

Once a deal is done with the agent for a gig, the industry norm is that 50 per cent of the fee is paid upfront. Of course, that deposit is returned if the band themselves pull the show due to illness or scheduling issues. If the promoter cancels the show, they're the ones out of pocket thanks to that non-refundable deposit.

IF YOU THOUGHT THIS YEAR WAS BAD . . .

We can expect the slump to continue in 2009. "If people thought this year was bad", commented one venue booker, "they won't believe what will probably happen in the next 12 months."

As more and more shows fail to do the business, drastic action will be taken. One Irish promotions company is believed to be planning to reduce the number of shows it puts on. The company just can't afford to sustain the losses it is making at present. This will have a knock-on effect on both bands, who have come to rely on touring revenue, and venue and production staff, who get paid on a per-show basis.

The malaise may even spread to next summer's festival and outdoor shows. The opening of the 02 means there are likely to be fewer single-act outdoor shows as moving gigs indoors means promoters can benefit from fixed costs and are less dependant on the vagaries of Irish summer weather.

The Irish festival circuit, which has grown enormously in the last six years, may retract next year. It's noteworthy, for example, that at the time of writing Ticketmaster still have early-bird tickets on sale for next summer's Oxegen, something which did not happen in years past.

While people may have been prepared to pay high ticket prices for festivals when times were good, a harsher financial climate could lead to festival-goers forgoing that musical weekend on a muddy racecourse of country estate. The next 12 months are going to be interesting.