AS the dust settles on the 1996 presidential campaign, Irish attention will be heavily focussed on the makeup of the new Clinton cabinet and other senior appointments which could have profound impact on White House policy towards Ireland.
In particular, the fate of the two senior White House officials, National Security Adviser, Tony Lake, and Deputy Assistant to the President, Nancy Soderberg, who handled the day to day business on the Irish issue and who represent the institutional memory on Ireland in the White House will be watched.
There has been speculation in the media that Lake wants to move on because of the relentless grind of the position and because he wants a return to academia. If so, he will be much missed on the Irish issue, as historically there has never been a cabinet member with such a deep commitment to finding a way forward on Ireland.
Lake stated to friends at a White House party last St Patrick's Day that Ireland had become "his passion", and certainly he poured endless hours into pursuing a peace strategy there.
The National Security Adviser is a key member of the Clinton cabinet, guaranteed much coveted "face time" every day with the President because of the importance of the post. Thus, the ability to influence Irish policy.
The name most prominently mentioned as a replacement for Lake is Strobe Talbot, a close friend of Clinton who was at Oxford with the President. Talbot is known as a Russian expert and has served as Deputy Secretary of State to Warren Christopher. He has no obvious leanings towards the Irish question.
Just a few weeks ago, Lake, Soderberg and US Ambassador to Ireland, Jean Kennedy Smith, (now set to be re appointed) hosted an hour long White House briefing for Irish American community leaders. At that meeting, Lake stated categorically that the Irish issue would definitely be high on the Clinton foreign policy agenda in a second term.
Several times he referred to what the President had called the "faces of hope" he and the President witnessed in Belfast and Derry during their trip there last December. Many at the meeting could only marvel at the access to the White House granted by the administration to Irish Americans, a far cry from the "Kathy Bar the Door" era presided over, by Republican Presidents Reagan and Bush.
Nancy Soderberg has also been tipped as a possible ambassadorial appointee, and she is certainly young enough at 37 to serve in many future administrations. Because of her work in Senator Ted Kennedy's office before she went to the White House she is probably the best known American official in Ireland.
On the State Department side Warren Christopher's resignation as Secretary of State last night simply confirms a desire he has expressed to the President on several occasions. Two names are now being mentioned as forerunners for the post: current UN ambassador Madeleine Albright and former Senator George Mitchell, currently chairing the multi party talks in Northern Ireland.
Mitchell played a pivotal role in the campaign, despite his Irish responsibilities. Mitchell's role playing Bob Dole in the mock debates was apparently so effective that Clinton is said to have lost his temper on several occasions, but it certainly prepared the President for the debates so successfully that he swept both.
The fact that Mitchell accompanied Hillary Clinton to the second debate and publicly sat with her was seen as a sign of how favourably President Clinton views him. Another important point is that in any confirmation hearings in the Republican held senate, Mitchell, because he is a former leader of what is essentially an old boy network, would be guaranteed an easier passage than others.
If Mitchell does move, then Ireland would have a powerful ally at the State Department, so long the bastion of Anglo American influence. Indeed, if Mitchell were to take the position and if Lake were to be replaced, one could very easily see the compass swinging over to the State Department on Irish issues.
WHO would replace Mitchell in the Northern Ireland peace talks is also currently a matter of conjecture. Irish Americans would be very keen to see an American replacement if Mitchell departs. ,The list of retiring or defeated senators has already been scrutinised. One name mentioned is that of William Cohen, the retiring Republican from Mitchell's own state of Maine, who has an excellent reputation and good relations with Clinton.
Another intriguing question is what the future holds for Senator Chris Dodd from Connecticut, probably the best informed American politician on Irish affairs. Dodd played a stellar role in the Clinton re election, taking over as Democratic National Committee Chairman after the mid term debacle in 1994. He was constantly by Clinton's side during the final push for re election and played a key role in the strategy which brought Clinton his historic victory.
Dodd, too, has been mentioned as a possible candidate for Secretary of State and as a putative candidate for the Democratic nomination in the year 2000. With the Democrats failing to secure a majority in the senate, there seems little doubt that his ambition now ranges larger than just playing out the string as a senator in opposition. His Connecticut colleague, former Congressman Bruce Morrison may also be on his way to a higher White House position than the one he now occupies as Chairman of the Federal Housing Finance Board.
Ironically, the fact that the House did not change hands will be seen as good news for many Irish American activists. That is because the key player, Congressman Ben Gilman off New York, remains in charge of the International Relations Committee which deals with the Irish issue. Gilman is seen as much more interested in Ireland than the man who would have succeeded him if the Democrats had won, Lee Hamilton of Indiana.
ALL of the changes may, count for naught, however if the President himself Irish issue, his interest in the Staffers close to him in the White House are adamant how ever, that he will not. One pointed to the three framed posters of his Irish visit which adorn the ante room to the Oval Office as an evident sign of his goodwill and interest.
There are more concrete indications. During the rehearsal for the debates, George Mitchell tells how Clinton stopped him and demanded an in depth report on what was going on in Ireland. It is acknowledged in senior Irish Republican circles that Clinton's involvement during his first term moved the August 1994, IRA ceasefire up by at least one year, and that his decision to grant the first visa to Sinn Fein resident, Gerry Adams, was a powerful galvanising force in bringing about that cessation.
But while visits by Irish leaders of all persuasions and political backgrounds to the White House have become almost common place during his presidency, and the President's own deep interest seems assured, the reality is that nothing is guaranteed in a second term for a President who no longer needs to nurture an Irish American vote and who may well have a totally new set of political priorities to establish.
That is why Irish American activists will already be renewing their contacts at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue this morning. Their hopes for a Clinton second term was best summarised by Stella O'Leary, Chair of Irish Americans for a Democratic, Victory. O'Leary expects "a re invigoration of the peace talks" now that the long campaign is over.
She believes that in a second term Clinton will be able to pursue "peace with the idea that he can make history" and making history is certainly what a Clinton second term will be all about.
