Screen Actors Guild awards: have Saoirse Ronan’s Oscar hopes been dented?

The nominations for the Screen Actors Guild Awards have been announced in Los Angeles. The Irish actor Andrew Scott receives a nod for best actor in a comedy series for his role as the "hot priest" in Phoebe Waller-Bridge's Fleabag. But Saoirse Ronan will be surprised and disappointed to miss out on a best-actress nod for Greta Gerwig's adaptation of Little Women. Both actors were nominated for Golden Globes on Monday.

There were surprises across the board in an awards shortlist that usually offers sound predictions for the Oscars. Little Women received not a single nomination. Noah Baumbach's Marriage Story picked up three nods: Adam Driver for best actor, Scarlett Johansson for best female actor and Laura Dern for best female actor in a supporting role. But that highly acclaimed film failed to score in the best-cast-in-a-motion-picture race. Only three films in the history of the SAG awards have won best picture at the Oscars without a SAG ensemble nomination. Most bookies' current second favourite may see its odds slip a little.

Martin Scorsese's The Irishman, now a stronger favourite for the award that really matters, secures a best-cast mention alongside Quentin Tarantino's Once Upon a Time in… Hollywood, Taika Waititi's Jojo Rabbit, Jay Roach's Bombshell and Bong Joon-ho's Parasite.

Renée Zellweger, who plays Judy Garland in Judy, looks like a strong favourite for the best-actress Oscar, with Johansson a decent second favourite

The last two look to have taken the places predicted for Little Women and Marriage Story. Bombshell, a study of sexual abuse at Fox News, picked up a further two nods: Nicole Kidman and Margot Robbie compete against each other for best supporting female actor. Parasite, winner of the Palme d'Or at Cannes, continues an extraordinary overseas awards run for a Korean film.  The film will surely secure an Oscar best-picture nomination, and Bong seems likely to be in the race for best director.

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Bombshell, Once Upon a Time in... Hollywood and The Irishman top the nominations chart with four apiece. As at the Globes, Robert De Niro misses out on a best-actor nomination for the Scorsese film, but his colleagues Al Pacino and Joe Pesci will fight it out for best supporting actor.

The acting branch is by far the largest at the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Hence the reliability of SAG, the actors' professional body, as a predictor for the Oscars. The crossover in electorate is significant, whereas not a single member of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, which decides the Globes, is a voter for the Academy Awards.

Saoirse Ronan still has a decent chance of a nomination at the Oscars, but her chances of a win now seem slight. Renée Zellweger, who plays Judy Garland in Judy, looks like a strong favourite for that gong, with Johansson a decent second favourite.

The veteran actor Kathy Bates, strong in Clint Eastwood's Richard Jewell, already knew to expect nothing from SAG. It was confirmed yesterday that Warner Bros had mistakenly entered her for best female actor rather than best female actor in a supporting role. It could happen to the best of us.

NOMINATIONS FOR THE 2019 SAG AWARDS

Outstanding performance by a male actor in a leading role
Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in... Hollywood)
Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
Taron Egerton (Rocketman)
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)

Outstanding performance by a female actor in a leading role
Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)
Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
Lupita Nyong'o (Us)
Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
Renée Zellweger (Judy)

Outstanding performance by a male actor in a supporting role
Jamie Foxx (Just Mercy)
Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
Al Pacino (The Irishman)
Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in... Hollywood)

Outstanding performance by a female actor in a supporting role
Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
Nicole Kidman (Bombshell)
Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers)
Margot Robbie (Bombshell)

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Bombshell (Lionsgate)
The Irishman (Netflix)
Jojo Rabbit (Fox)
Once Upon a Time in... Hollywood (Sony)
Parasite (Neon)

Outstanding performance by a male actor in a television movie or miniseries 
Mahershala Ali (True Detective)
Russell Crowe (The Loudest Voice)
Jared Harris (Chernobyl)
Jharrel Jerome (When They See Us)
Sam Rockwell (Fosse/Verdon)

Outstanding performance by a female actor in a television movie or miniseries
Patricia Arquette (The Act)
Toni Collette (Unbelievable)
Joey King (The Act)
Emily Watson (Chernobyl)
Michelle Williams (Fosse/Verdon)

Outstanding performance by a male actor in a drama series
Sterling K Brown (This Is Us)
Steve Carell (The Morning Show)
Billy Crudup (The Morning Show)
Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones)
David Harbour (Stranger Things)

Outstanding performance by a female actor in a drama series
Jennifer Aniston (The Morning Show)
Helena Bonham Carter (The Crown)
Olivia Colman (The Crown)
Jodie Comer (Killing Eve)
Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid's Tale)

Outstanding performance by a male actor in a comedy series
Alan Arkin (The Kominsky Method)
Michael Douglas (The Kominsky Method)
Bill Hader (Barry)
Andrew Scott (Fleabag)
Tony Shalhoub (The Marvelous Mrs Maisel)

Outstanding performance by a female actor in a comedy series
Cristina Applegate (Dead to Me)
Alex Borstein (The Marvelous Mrs Maisel)
Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs Maisel)
Catherine O'Hara (Schitt's Creek)
Phoebe Waller-Bridge (Fleabag)

Outstanding performance by an ensemble in a drama series
Big Little Lies (HBO)
The Crown (Netflix)
Game of Thrones (HBO)
The Handmaid's Tale (Hulu)
Stranger Things (Netflix)

Outstanding performance by an ensemble in a comedy series
Barry (HBO)
Fleabag (Amazon)
The Kominsky Method (Netflix)
The Marvelous Mrs Maisel (Amazon)
Schitt's Creek (CBC Television)

Outstanding action performance by a stunt ensemble in a comedy or drama series
Game of Thrones
Glow
Stranger Things
The Walking Dead
Watchman

Outstanding action performance by a stunt ensemble in a motion picture
Avengers: Endgame
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Joker
Once Upon a Time in... Hollywood

The winners will be announced on January 19th, 2020