Gardai see Saturday's bomb explosion in Ban bridge as part of a simmering campaign by a group, whose leadership is based in Dundalk, to re-establish the role previously played by the Provisional IRA against continued British rule in Northern Ireland.
Security sources say the group is not rushing its fences. After a series of setbacks when its bombing operations were intercepted by the Garda Special Branch, it appears to have established a secure bomb-making operation in the Border area.
Bombs and mortar attacks emanating from this source have been occurring roughly once a fortnight for the past few months, mostly against targets in Down and Armagh within easy striking distance of the Border. Most attacks have failed.
Gardai believe the group is probably capable of worse attacks but it seems intent on maintaining a low-level terrorist operation for now, probably with the intention of building up support to provide an alternative to the Provisional IRA.
Garda sources say it may have as many as 150 members, mostly former members of the Provisional IRA, but with a few young members attracted by the notion of a continuing tradition of "physical force" republicanism. The group includes some capable bomb makers and figures who, while still in the Provisional IRA, strongly advocated the notion of escalating the bombing campaign in England to force a British withdrawal from Northern Ireland. It is believed that this philosophy remains central to the dissidents' military strategy.
The group's two attempts to start a bombing campaign in England have been stopped by Garda action. It has shown itself capable of building bombs as large as those Provisional IRA bombs which caused such destruction in England from 1993 to 1996. But the group seems incapable of developing further effective weapons, like the very accurate mortars made by the Provisional IRA. In four mortar attacks by the dissidents on Northern security bases, none of the missiles reached its target.
The main concern of security forces on both sides of the Border is that the dissident group will position itself to take over slowly the role played by the Provisional IRA. Its leader, the former senior Provisional who lives in Co Louth, is said to be a resourceful figure capable of strategic thinking.
There is also continuing uncertainty about what happens as the Provisional IRA breaks up. Garda sources say it has disintegrated in many areas where it had been very active. Its members are said to be drifting off into ordinary employment and showing no signs of engaging in subversive activity.
It is believed the dissident republican group, styling itself the Real IRA, is attracting little support outside the Border area from Dundalk to Newry and Dublin. One of its members, Ronan Mac Lochlainn, was killed during an armed raid in May.
However, gardai say they are concerned that the group poses a potential long-term threat to peace in the North. They believe it is slowly building itself up and is maintaining a low-level terrorist campaign as part of a plan to undermine the Provisional IRA leadership.
It is thought likely the dissidents will try to step up their campaign in the autumn, as the Sinn Fein leadership moves towards a position of government in the new Stormont Assembly. The dissidents' campaign will also make it difficult for the Provisional IRA to decommission arms, Garda sources say, as remaining Provisional IRA members unhappy with the move into Northern government could pass weapons to the dissidents' group, rather than surrender them.
The dissidents are believed to have been stockpiling weapons and explosives in the north Louth area for two years. It is not thought to have access to the Provisional IRA's large remaining store of Semtex - believed to be two to three tons. Its Limited resources and the successful infiltration of its operations by the Garda appear to be the main reasons for its low level of activity. It has been responsible for six explosions in the North since its campaign started with the bombing of the mainly Protestant village of Markethill, Co Armagh last September. There have been as many unsuccessful or intercepted bombing operations, where explosives have been seized and arrests made.
So far the group has given warnings about its car bombs but in some attacks serious civilian casualties were avoided only by luck. Several people were injured in Banbridge on Saturday because of an inadequate warning about the car bomb in the town centre.
The explosions have all been in Co Armagh: at Newtownhamilton on June 24th; Portadown on February 23rd; Moira on February 20th; and a mysterious one at Drumintee on June 22nd, a trend which tends to emphasise the narrow area of support the dissidents have. There are still no signs of it developing roots of support in Belfast or other former hardline republican areas in the North. Security forces fear that the group will almost inevitably begin to spread, making its containment more difficult.
