Agrarian strife

If euroscepticism does take root in Polish society it is likely that the first shoots will flourish in the country's rural community, nourished by the accession debate.

Perceptions that the monumental changes facing Poland's backward agriculture are being driven by the demands of Brussels have already led to demonstrations demanding parity of treatment with European farmers, particularly on direct income support payments.

No chance, say the member states, in mortal fear of the cost of supporting a farming population 20 times the size of that in Ireland. You can't expect to be compensated for the price cuts foreseen in the CAP reform, they say, as Polish farmers have never experienced such prices.

The effect, Poles argue, will be that the supposedly common farm policy will be turned into a two-tier system. And, as the Polish ambassador to the EU, Mr Jan Truszczynski, points out some Polish support prices are actually higher than EU prices, notably in wheat, poultry and pork.

Overall, however, the level of subsidy, by various means, is only half that of the EU's 42 per cent (producer subsidy equivalent as share of farm gate prices). High tariffs protect Polish farmers, but, say EU economists, may have also delayed pressure for reform.

The farm issue is likely to be the most difficult facing negotiators on both sides of the table, with EU member states demanding a substantial transition period before Polish farmers avail of the full benefits of CAP financing. The Pole's starting position is for no transition period in agriculture. The EU's ambassador to Poland, Mr Rolf Timans, says he believes a generalised transition period for the whole of agriculture unlikely and he warns that talks are likely to be exacerbated by conflicts of interest within both sets of delegations on whether unrestricted mutual access to each others' markets is a good idea.

And Timans is acutely aware that, just as important as the negotiations are, there will also be a need for a sustained and sensitive information campaign to explain what the EU's policy is about and that its purpose is not the destruction of agriculture but the saving and restructuring of what is viable.

The huge rural community, and its family connections just a generation off the land, is a political force well capable yet of bringing down any Polish government.

The challenge is huge. Of the two million farm holdings in the country the Polish Government has admitted that only 700,000 "have a future". Because of the failure of collectivisation under the Communist regime the average size of farms is only 8 hectares, and those are usually severely fragmented making working them extremely inefficient. The average Polish farmer owns 2.3 head of cattle, 5.8 pigs, 0.2 horses and sheep, 0.1 goats, 16.3 hens. . . and 0.6 tractors.

The agricultural workforce represents 26 per cent of the total labour force (5 per cent in EU15) and actually increased by 13 per cent between 1990 and 1994. But agriculture, because of low productivity only contributed 6 per cent of GDP. For a majority farming is barely economic at all with half of all farmers consuming all they produce themselves.

Only 1520 per cent of farms generate a financial surplus capable of being reinvested, while a survey suggests that some 70 per cent of farmers have practically no cash income from farming. Onefifth of total farm income is made up of welfare payments and farm incomes are falling relative to those in society generally resulting in real poverty in rural areas.

Following a decline in production between 1989 and 1994 output is rising gradually and now stands at 90 per cent of that level, significantly less than the recovery in industrial production in the same period. And the country has turned form a net exporter to a substantial net importer of food in the same period although last year it halved its food deficit to £330 million.

While officially 40 per cent agrofood exports go to the EU, Commission officials say the real figure is much higher because of a large undeclared trade.

IN JUNE the Polish Government presented the Sejm with its Mid-Term Development Strategy for Agriculture and Rural Areas (MTS). It sets out a twin track strategy based on providing a social safety net and exit from farming for non-viable farms and economic support and incentives for those capable of sustained development to help consolidation and technical advance. It also sets out an ambitious programme of rural development - only half of the country's farms are connected to mains water, and one-fifth to the phone system.

But the report was severely criticised for being a wish-list which failed to quantify the huge costs of implementation - estimated independently at $1 billion a year - or to identify where the cash would come from. To make matters worse the farm budget was also cut this year, and pre-accession farm aid from the EU will come nowhere near what is needed.