A politically correct Budget is on the cards

JOHN Bruton continues to surprise. The "Young Tiger" of the mid 60s who once appalled his conservative Fine Gael elders by his caring approach still has a roar left in him. And he sounded off last Monday on the need to share the fruits of economic growth.

Exploding expectations of big tax cuts in the Budget, Mr Bruton took the road of social cohesion and committed his Government to helping the least well off, rather than responding to powerful vested interests.

Hardly vintage Fine Gael stuff. In fact, the message to the "have nots" of our society was a blatant attempt to steal Fianna Fail's traditional clothing.

Sean Lemass's economic metaphor of "a rising tide lifting all boats" was the clear sub text of Mr Bruton's speech. And, in the process, he made a virtue out of the terms for government agreed with the Labour Party and Democratic Left in 1994.

With a keen eye to allegations by Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats that the Democratic Left tail is now wagging the Fine Gael dog, Mr Bruton took the high moral ground. And he built on the family values foundations so carefully laid during the divorce referendum. Unemployment destroyed families; he was determined to protect them.

These were on a par with the values his wife, Finola, had articulated so controversially during President Clinton's visit: values which were obliquely endorsed during yesterday's audience with the Pope.

The Taoiseach wasn't alone in championing a more caring society. A few weeks earlier, his brother Richard produced his own ideas on job creation within the Department of Employment and Enterprise.

And he roused the ire of Proinsias De Rossa of Democratic Left with his proposal for reducing dole payments for people in their late teens in order to encourage them to stay at school.

It was a small detail in a broadly based plan. But the sharpness of Mr De Rossa's criticism of a Cabinet "colleague spoke volumes about the growing tensions in Cabinet.

We had more party in fighting last Wednesday when Pat Rabbitte took exception to Dick Spring's assertion that plans from his Department on tackling unemployment represented the "definitive response of the Government". All three parties wanted due recognition for their contributions.

But with the economy growing rapidly, Fine Gael is in pole position for the Budget. Setting the political agenda, the Taoiseach spoke of striking a balance between the need to tackle long term unemployment, to maintain social stability and to keep interest rates low The Government would try to enhance total family welfare in the Budget, he said, rather than the "aftertax" income of the principal earner".

It was a multi layered approach. The family would profit from special assistance. And all taxpayers would benefit, socially and financially, from a reduction in the level of long term unemployed. It was a vital element in the battle against crime, Mr Bruton said.

THE basis for the Taoiseach's speech was fully charted in the Government of Renewal programme. But, with more than a year in Government on the political clock it was unusual that its terms - should still be centre stage.

In that document, 20 out of the 130 paragraphs are devoted to proposals for dealing with long term unemployment. Both Labour and Democratic Left insisted during negotiations, and Fine Gael agreed, that this problem should take precedence over tax reform.

Yesterday the fruits of the Labour, Party's input were unveiled when Dick Spring published the final report of the National Economic and Social Forum.

That body, the brainchild of" Labour, has pioneered work on social exclusion and unemployment in Ireland, and a number of its ideas have already been put into practice through local initiatives. The Cabinet has welcomed the new report, and its influence will be found in next Tuesday's Budget.

One Labour Party source said there was a determination that the people on the margins of society should not be excluded from the benefits of economic growth. This would involve local employment schemes and a variety of interlinked programmes.

As part of the package, Niamh Bhreathnach has proposed that 1,000 places be provided in a Youth Reach Programme for 18 to 20 year olds in 1996. And a further 1,000 places may be provided for jobless adults under the Vocational Training Opportunities Scheme. Unskilled school leavers and the long term unemployed would be the main beneficiaries.

These job creation costs, along with the need to provide structural changes in the social welfare system, are spread across at least four Departments. And all three Government parties are involved.

In order to deal with unemployment, while increasing social welfare benefits and topping up child benefit, the Government had to scale back the amount of money that would otherwise be available for income, tax cuts.

Low paid workers can expect reductions in PRSI and income tax.

But those on higher incomes will have to wait until the planned election year of 1997 for the gravy to flow. To do otherwise would be to breach the Government's spending targets for a second time within months.

Since last October, when the Cabinet devoted a full day to consideration of the unemployment issue, a major work creation programme has been in preparation. Proposals from Mr Spring, Mr Richard Bruton and Mr De Rossa have gone into the mix, and today's special Cabinet meeting will decide its final shape.

With time for another Budget in hand, the coalition parties have opted to attack unemployment, that great blight on our economy, rather than improve the position of those already at work.

After that, the public will decide whether the political risks being run by the Government, in the interests of social cohesion, are a bad bet.