Why do we bother with stock market forecasts?
Research shows people see value in humility after recognising limited understanding
“Market forecasts are particularly tricky. No one can see the future – the world is inherently uncertain and surprising things will happen.” Photograph: Shannon Stapleton/Reuters
“Forecasting: the attempt to predict the unknowable by measuring the irrelevant; this task employs most people on Wall Street.”
The words of Jason Zweig, author of the Devil’s Financial Dictionary, are particularly apt at this time of year. We hear a lot from financial forecasters every January, as strategists prognosticate on what’s in store for markets for the year ahead, even though decades of research confirms the prediction game is a pretty fruitless one.