Merits of actively doing nothing

The view of the general public is that, when markets are volatile, the professionals spend most of their time frantically trading…

The view of the general public is that, when markets are volatile, the professionals spend most of their time frantically trading in and out of a variety of stocks and shares to either maximise their profits or minimise their losses.

Which would mean that the last few weeks would have many of my old friends and colleagues leaving the office like wet rags last weekend, only too grateful for the Easter break and the opportunity to recharge the batteries.

I'm sure they're more than grateful for the Easter break, but I bet that last week wasn't as frantic as you might imagine - the professionals actually have a habit of not doing very much on weeks with bank holidays. There are times, though, when actively doing nothing can be a lot more profitable than tweaking around with the portfolio, and it's hard to deny that the markets, and many investors, could probably do with a few weeks of active inertia.

Hard to know whether they'll get it - each time the Nasdaq moves up, a whole raft of people who missed out on some other up-move decide to have a go at buying some shares that, a couple of days later, they'll wish they hadn't.

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And, of course, every time it moves down they wish they kept their money in cash or bonds. Although as far as bonds are concerned, maybe not.

Active inertia by the ECB hasn't actually helped European bond markets or, indeed, the euro over the past few months. I really can't be any more bearish on Wim Duisenberg and his cronies than I am already. It seems ludicrous that there isn't a benchmark against which their performance is judged.

After all, inflation is higher, the euro is lower and nobody seems to be confident that this will change any time soon. If they were a board of directors, shareholders would be asking hard questions by now - I suppose lots of people are asking hard questions, it's just that Wim and the boys haven't got any answers.

Nobody has any reason for euro weakness other than lack of confidence - but is this lack of confidence in Europe as an economy or the ECB as a bunch of hopeless mandarins? Naturally enough, a weak euro also pushes inflation higher and, of course, the ECB board is paranoid about inflation, particularly as it's now above its 2 per cent target. But pushing up interest rates hasn't helped either the currency or inflation and has also led to jittery European bond markets.

Back in January, before I forsook the IFSC for suburbia, we noticed an increase in the number of private investors willing to buy short-dated bonds. Five-year paper was yielding around 5.25 per cent which compared favourably with the repo rate of 3 per cent and deposit rates somewhere around zero.

Although I've been notified by my bank that my mortgage rate has gone up, I haven't heard anything about deposit rates going higher (now there's a surprise!), but most commentators now believe that the repo rate will increase at least once again before the end of the year - the December three month futures contract was at 4.7 per cent before the ECB's meeting.

So five-year bonds which are still yielding close to 5.25 per cent are not quite as attractive as they were back in January. Which is not a comfortable position for bond holders who - like equity holders - prefer to see prices going up rather than coming down.

Meanwhile, in the UK - where sterling's strength is truly giving them a lot of problems - the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) still seems in two minds about further rate hikes. Inflation in the UK is running at 2 per cent which is below the Government's 2.5 per cent target and must surely make it more and more difficult for those MPC members who continue to want higher rates. Last month, three members of the committee voted for higher rates.

Actually, the only truly consistent member of the MPC is DeAnne Julius who either votes for lower, or unchanged rates each time but that's probably because of her business background. Business people are more pragmatic than economists, particularly economists who have anything to do with the monetary authority.

However, there is a reason why the MPC has a dilemma and that is because inflation in the services sector is high at 4.2 per cent. In fact, a graph of retail prices in the goods sector and the services sector show a marked divergence over the past year (if not longer).

Cheaper imports have probably kept inflation low in the retail sector but services don't really catch the impact of the strong pound, and if inflation is being generated within the UK, then you can see why the MPC members are arguing the toss.

But higher rates in the UK and US don't help Europe and the euro. The ECB really wants to see lower rates outside the euro zone so its own increases might just about haul the currency higher. Yet higher rates outside the euro zone are what's happening. So it seems that we're stuck with a weak euro for some time to come. Not to mention a weak board on the ECB.

Never let it be said, though, that economics is one-sided. Because the flip side of the weak euro is that Dublin has become even more of a haven for British tourists. Last Friday, the man and I strolled down Grafton Street and we might as well have been in Birmingham or Liverpool with all the English people around.

When we stopped off for refuelling in Bewley's, we were surrounded by Brummie accents (mostly wondering if they'd ever get served. Bewley's was operating the quaint, we don't rush to take your order or give you food, system).

The continental tourists don't care about the exchange rate, of course, since we're all sinking together in one great European leaky boat. Despite the fact that it's not as cheap to come to Dublin for non-Brits, there were plenty of other languages on offer on Grafton Street too.

We still have a long way to go to catch up with our European colleagues on the multilingual front, even if pricing in euros has brought us harmony in other areas. Notices in Dublin shops remain in English only (with the occasional foray into Irish) but, unlike many places on the continent, we don't throw in a bit of Spanish, German or French.

But then I suppose currency disaster is pretty much the same in any European language.

Author Sheila O'Flanagan is a former fixed-income specialist