Footsie edges up but stays stuck in the mire

Rarely does life get much tougher for stressed-out UK strategists than with the current equity market.

Footsie was up only a couple of points on the surface but down fundamentally. It has become increasingly difficult to know what to say about a market that is stuck where it has been, not just for the past couple of months but for the past couple of years.

The FTSE 100 closed 2.9 higher at 6,381.3 but ex-Vodafone it was down 15. The FTSE All-Share was up 2.03 at 3,072.59 and the Techmark 100 down 2.08 at 3,752.

One can juggle with dates, but on Monday, July 20th 1998, Footsie finished at 6,179, just over 200 points shy of the close on Monday, July 24th 2000, making a rise of only 3 per cent in two years. Even with dividends factored in, it would probably have been cheaper, and certainly less nerve-wracking, to have left the cash in the bank.

The picture remains even flatter over the past quarter. Without the support of telecoms, especially Vodafone AirTouch, the FTSE All-Share index rose only six points.

This lack of direction has meant that the bears are unable to rub their hands at misfortunes or latch on to the mantra that what goes up must come down.

Bulls can point to the underlying appetite for stocks but with very little nibbling going on they have to look for increasingly obscure economic set pieces as possible sparks for a general change of heart.

The all-important Greenspan testimony to Congress failed to get any motors running, even though the famously cautious chairman of the US Federal Reserve appeared to have no big worries about interest rates.

Equally, UK GDP figures at the end of last week did not provoke a rush of selling despite evidence of unexpected growth in the services sector.

Now, interest rates are taking centre stage, even though there is a broad feeling that they are close to their peak in the UK and US.

The UK's Monetary Policy Committee meets next week and the latest GDP figures have fuelled the bear case.

"The policy risk is still that interest rates go up and while that remains, you cannot see the equity market making much progress," says Mr Richard Jeffrey of CCF Charterhouse.

The only sunshine came from Ideaglobal.com. The economic consultancy said: "A Goldilocks Scenario is emerging, with the Q2 GDP data showing that the economy remains sufficiently robust but average earnings/inflation data emphasising that this is not at the cost of a pick-up in inflation. We see the Bank of England holding rates in August."

Ideaglobal sees the Footsie breaking out to 7,100 in the second half of the year.