THE ABILITY to see into the future is one that many claim but none has proof; science dictates that the future is unknowable. It has not yet occurred; it is nothing, “the other” to our reality. The fantasy of clairvoyance begins with the lottery numbers; the possibilities beyond that are infinite and unimaginable.
For businesses, having some concept of what to expect from the future is crucial to success, especially now. While it’s true that specific events cannot be predicted in any detail, there are signs that may dictate, or at least point towards, future changes. For Peclers of Paris, this is a skill the company alleges to have acquired over almost 40 years of trend forecasting, closely following signs in culture all over the world and predicting shifts that influence society, consumption and our lives, at least on a superficial level.
Emma Fric, director of development at Peclers, describes the work of the firm as “looking at creative scenarios”.
“We focus our research on values that make mankind unique: hedonism, nature, technology or science, and our relationship to the imaginary,” says Fric. The research is presented in a series of trend books produced by the firm – 18 each season – that serve to guide clients through their methods of doing business.
The functions of trend forecasting are as infinite as its possibilities, and clients range from large consumer brands such as Samsung and L’Oreal to smaller businesses.
“Trend forecasting is not just a tool for large multinationals,” says Fric. “In the current economic context, understanding trends can help create a real competitive advantage for small businesses. For example, it can help recognise or support the launch of new concepts, new products or services that may become really important in the future.”
So how is it done, and how reliable is it?
“It’s not a Bible, by any means,” says Fric. While trend forecasting is, according to Peclers, reasonably accurate, there is no denying that the “creative scenarios” depicted are broad and far-reaching, and will not provide intricate, accurate predictions as to where to go next for any business. When asked if Peclers ever gets it wrong, a suitably vague response is given.
“We have sometimes been a little early,” says Fric. “Our trend predictions sometimes take a little longer to emerge on a larger and more mainstream scale, but we have 40 years’ experience – we have built a real understanding of the difference between short-term fads and more long-term trends, and identifying which ones our clients should focus on.”
So what is the focus on now? What are the long-term trends that Peclers, in its most recent trend book, Futur(s), has pinpointed for the near future? “Everybody was talking about a chaos and an apocalyptic turnaround in the world,” says Fric. So far, so true. “But what we realised was, there was something optimistic about it – we’re seeing new consumer values, a new lifestyle, maybe a re-centring on what’s essential in life.”
It’s something that most businesses will already have recognised. Along with an interest in sustainability, people are using the recession as the impetus to cut a certain type of consumption, but it’s not always due to a cut in their own finances. Fric recognises a responsibility that we, as consumers, are only now becoming aware of.
“It doesn’t mean consuming less,” she says. “It means consuming better: moving away from old values, an old system that may not have answered our needs, towards a new maturation of creativity, new values and a new lifestyle. In some ways we saw these trends appearing three or four years ago – everybody was talking about sustainability – and there is a new consciousness of this ethical living.”
Peclers sees our consumer culture being shaped by the way in which we view the world – a world, says Fric, that is changing more quickly than anyone can keep up with.
“Today we are creating more data than we will ever be able to analyse, capture and integrate,” she says. “In this world of saturation, how do you make sense of that? Who will be able to make sense of that?”
But it’s when she begins to talk about the nitty-gritty – the manifestation of these trends in fashion collections, for example – that the potential applications of this forecasting become slightly clearer. “People are trying to reconcile [the forecasts and reality, probably the best person, artistically, doing this, is Nicholas Ghesquière for Balenciaga. Artists and designers are stretching the boundaries of our imagination to make sense of this new world.”
The examples she cites are impressive: Jil Sander’s diffusion line for Uniqlo as an example of the collision between fashionista and the recession; a toying with forms in terms of design, that “there will be a focus on cleverness in design, the use of new materials, a reinventing of traditions”; and the idea of “making, rather than taking; it’s a new creative and constructive spirit”. But there is a definite grey area, in which the client is expected to take these “creative scenarios” and translate them into real results.
“It is our duty to anticipate a customer before they can articulate their needs,” says Fric, but I don’t recognise many of my needs in the creative scenarios presented by Futur(s). Then it dawns on me: I just don’t know it yet.
