Fed to hold rates steady

Markets are waiting for one more big event this year - the US Federal Reserve's policy-setting meeting tomorrow - before getting into the holiday spirit completely, analysts said.

With the year-end slowdown likely to finally kick in two weeks before the year ends, market participants will also keep an eye on European economic data which is seen confirming recent signs of economic strength.

But only big surprises are likely to spur them to action.

The majority of analysts do not expect the Fed to change interest rates but said it might move to a tightening bias from its current neutral stance.

US interest rates are expected to rise early in 2000, with expectations for a hike firming up recently in light of continued strong economic data. Because a rise is already priced in, a move to a tighter bias is not seen having a huge impact.

European Commission: Closer to home, the final meeting this year of the European Commission is likely to rule on a number of disputes over government assistance and reliefs in member-states.

Ministers and the private sector here will be watching closely to see whether the Commission sanctions the continuation of rent and rate relief in the Dublin docklands area and for the National Conference Centre.

The expectation is that they will be phased out, a move which could put the future of the troubled conference centre proposal further into doubt.

Central Bank bulletin: As it nurses its wounds in the aftermath of the Committee of Public Accounts report on DIRT, it will be interesting to see how the Central Bank views the effects of the 2000 Budget, specifically its tax provisions and their impact on inflation. Politicians can hardly expect an easy run from the bank in the current recriminatory climate, as the bank issues its final bulletin of the first year of the euro.

Monday

Results: Drew Scientific (H1), Gontard, Kalamazoo Computer Group (H1), Peel Holdings (H1).

A.G.M.: Aedes (e.g.m.), Marylebone Warwick (e.g.m.), Sportsworld Media (e.g.m.).

Indicators: Central Bank publishes winter bulletin; British motor vehicle production (Nov) and M4 data (Nov).

Others: IBEC presents study on economic impact of film industry in Ireland; Aventis shares are due to start trading in Paris, Frankfurt and New York.

Tuesday

Results: 365 Corp (H1), Conagra (Q2), Northacre (H1), Stewart & Wight (H1).

A.G.M.: Affinity Internet (e.g.m.), Alphameric (e.g.m.), Exeter Investment Trust, PIC Int'l, NHP.

Meetings: US Federal Reserve's policy-making Federal Open Market Committee meets.

Indicators: EMU consumer prices (Dec); US federal budget (Nov); Italian consumer prices (Dec) and GDP (Q3); Canadian retail sales (Oct)

Wednesday

A.G.M.: Bullough (e.g.m.), Downing Healthcare, F & G (e.g.m.), Leicester City.

Meetings: EU Commission meets (Brussels).

Indicators: Irish retail sales (Oct); British GDP (Q3) and current account (Q3); US GDP (Q3), GDP deflator (Q3), retail sales (Q3) and Michigan Sentiment Survey (Dec); French industrial production (Oct); Italian unemployment (Oct) and consumer confidence.

Thursday

Results: Applied Holographics (e.g.m.), Firth Holdings (e.g.m.), Jones Stroud Holdings, Old Mutual, Pordum Foods, Worthington Group (e.g.m.).

A.G.M.: WWL Internet (e.g.m.).

Indicators: British non-EU trade (Nov) and trade (Oct); US durable goods orders (Nov), personal income/spending (Dec), help wanted index (Nov) and weekly jobs and money supply data; German consumer prices (Dec); French consumer spending (Nov) and consumer prices (Nov); Italian non-EU trade (Nov), EU trade (Oct); Canadian average weekly earnings (Oct).

Friday

Indicators: Italian retail sales (Oct); Japanese retail sales (Nov); German import/export prices (Nov); Canadian real GDP (Oct).

Others: Irish Stock Exchange closes early at 12.30 p.m.; London Stock Exchange closes early for Christmas holiday; US federal government offices closed.