Irish unity poses greater risks to Northern Ireland than Brexit does

John FitzGerald: Both North and South could pay a large price for unity in the near future

One response may be for an orphan Northern Ireland to seek a home in a united Ireland. However, from an economic point of view, this would have unpleasant consequences North and South. Photograph: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

One response may be for an orphan Northern Ireland to seek a home in a united Ireland. However, from an economic point of view, this would have unpleasant consequences North and South. Photograph: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

While we have been concentrating on the immediate consequences of Brexit, the internal tensions that it has caused in the UK may have long-term consequences for Northern Ireland and the rest of the island.

In a new UK parliament, Northern Ireland may have few friends because of the prominence that the hard-border issue has assumed in negotiations. Even more serious, the post-Brexit tensions could result in Scottish independence, leaving Northern Ireland potentially an orphan within a reduced UK. In addition, a future Labour government could consider abandoning Northern Ireland as an expensive problem, just as the Wilson government of the 1970s considered.

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