Differing views on Grafton's fortunes

One More Thing:There were slightly differing views on Grafton Group this week from analysts at Davy and Citigroup.

In an analysis of the construction sector published on Tuesday, Davy said CRH and Grafton "stand out" as the best value in the sector in Europe.

Two days later Citigroup maintained its hold rating on Grafton, describing it as a "medium-term opportunity" with "short-term worries".

Both brokers have downgraded their 2008 earnings for Grafton following the sharp decline in the Irish property market.

Grafton's merchanting business here is heavily exposed to this sector and the company's value has halved from a high of €3.1 billion in mid-February to about €1.3 billion now.

"We now expect earnings to fall by about 12 per cent to 75.4 cent in 2008," Citigroup said in a note to clients yesterday.

Citigroup said the group was well managed and in good shape financially but it maintained its "hold" recommendation.

"Given the near-term lack of visibility and risks in Ireland and the UK, we keep our hold rating but raise our risk code to high and lower our price target to €6.50," Citigroup said.

Michael Chadwick has proved himself to be one of the most astute chief executives in the Irish market.

He cleverly expanded the merchanting group into the UK over the past decade and landed the Heiton takeover in Ireland a few years to make it the clear market leader here.

He is also thought to be looking at the possibility of expanding into a third territory in Europe.

But with the possibility of fewer than 50,000 housing units being built in Ireland in 2008 and the UK property market struggling, he will need all his powers to steer Grafton through the current downturn.