Tonight, the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, will address the Irish Management Institute Conference in Killarney. The flier for the conference posed its theme: "Booming economy. Unprecedented growth. Rising employment. Strong trade surplus. Falling interest rates. Things have never been so good. But what is coming next and can we maintain the momentum?"
I wonder if the Taoiseach will say, "Distinguished guests and members of the IMI, the answer to your question is `No'. `No chance'. We've got it all wrong; our efforts are mere foostering at the edges, bound to fail. Let me take a few moments to explain. A few weeks ago, I did a photocall to mark the publication of a new book, Social Policy in Ireland, edited by Sean Healy and Brigid Reynolds of the Conference of Religious of Ireland. I've been reading some of the book recently and, you know, I've had to change my mind about a few things.
"Many of you are probably convinced that continuing on the path of steady growth in wealth, employment and production will produce a world in which everyone has a stake and where the good life can be accessed by all. This conventional economic vision of the future is simply unattainable, according to the book's editors.
"The concentration on GDP growth which I believe has been mentioned more than once in your conference is, I now accept, a selfish, mechanistic measure of progress. Why do we get so hung up on this and other numbers? As a former Minister for Finance, I am unwilling and unable to throw stones, but I am trying, since I read this book, to decommission that Finance mindset. I therefore welcome the reminder to us not to grant the status of absolute truth to the words of economists. "I welcome, too, the call in the book for a paradigm shift in thinking about economic growth, progress and policy. We can all agree this is an urgent task, one which I regret to say previous governments have only sporadically addressed over the last 200 years. I welcome the new impetus being given to it.
"Let me state quite clearly: our policies and programmes to promote social inclusion will be completely ineffectual, since they refuse to challenge the structural, social causes of inequality. I am convinced by political scientist John Baker's argument that equal opportunity is impossible so long as privileged people like you and I, particularly you can deploy their advantages on behalf of themselves and their families. I propose therefore to have my party re-named `Fianna Fail, the radical egalitarianist party'.
"I turn now to other contributions in this book, particularly in the area of unemployment. Contrary to what Irish governments have believed for the past few years, I read that there are fundamental sources of the unemployment problem which will necessarily persist into the future. Those sources will be familiar to you, the members of the IMI: the basic dynamics of the capitalist economy itself, the passing of the Golden Age of capitalist expansion and the historic end of the opportunity for balanced growth.
"Distinguished visitors from overseas, even your foreign investment in our country will not help our unemployment problem, because all we will get is beggar-thy-neighbour job creation. I cannot, as Taoiseach of this country, any longer countenance jobs being created here by multinationals if I am not assured that those jobs could only have been created here and not anywhere else. "Members of the IMI and guests, I earnestly hope that in your debates you, too, reach the conclusion that the only way out from global unemployment is to reduce the working week so that labour can sustainably capture increases in productivity. In other words, look to France's 35-hour week and have faith that the unemployment rate will fall.
"And so, tonight in Killarney, I wish to offer an apology to the people for the programme to reduce unemployment our Government announced this week. I apologise that we have followed the plans worked on at EU and national level for about four years we should have torn up those wretched neoclassical, labour market tamperings. I apologise for having a target of reducing unemployment to a rate of 7 per cent by 2004, and 5 per cent by 2003, rates lower than those forecasted only last year by the ESRI. "I leave you tonight with a commendation of this excellent book and I pose a question: is there any other real thinking on social policy for me to read?"
Oliver O'Connor is an investment funds specialist
