Ireland is not experiencing a downturn, we are told. But the threat of one is very real

Latest figures from Morgan McKinley show sharp decline in number of professional job vacancies

Just last week, the Central Statistics Office said unemployment has again edged up, this time to 5%. Photograph: Bryan O Brien
Just last week, the Central Statistics Office said unemployment has again edged up, this time to 5%. Photograph: Bryan O Brien

Morgan McKinley’s assessment that the changes in hiring patterns witnessed here in recent months do not amount to a downturn is not entirely comforting.

The numbers are stark ... significantly fewer vacancies in many of the well-paid, professional roles that have helped fuel economic prosperity in recent years, with more people chasing them.

The growth in temporary and contract hiring indicates increased levels of uncertainty among employers about what the future holds for the economy. The suggestion that many are adopting a more reasoned view of what artificial intelligence can do for firms might bring a little more stability to sectors like technology/ICT, where news of substantial lay-offs attributed to the roll-out of the new technology has made headlines over the past year or so.

The recruitment specialists’ assessment is reflected in the most recent set of Central Statistics Office (CSO) labour force survey figures, which put the loss of jobs in the Irish ICT sector at just over 20,000, or more than 10 per cent in a year.

Just last week, the CSO said unemployment has again edged up, this time to 5 per cent.

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There was, at least, some good news this week with Intel’s announcement of a €5 billion investment in its Leixlip campus, which will add an unspecified number of high-tech jobs there and secure those already in situ.

The numbers are not yet dramatic, but the indicators are certainly not as positive as they were and they have the potential to get a good deal worse.

Amid the ongoing uncertainties affecting the global economy, huge shifts in Big Tech and a changing employment landscape for young professionals starting out on their careers, the fact that analysts are having to clarify that we are not in a downturn might be the clearest indication yet of how real the threat of one is becoming.

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Emmet Malone

Emmet Malone

Emmet Malone is Work Correspondent at The Irish Times