How Official Ireland is planning to keep the lights on in a doomsday scenario

There are many ways in which an energy emergency could announce itself. It could be as simple as a phone ringing in a petrol station.

Under crisis plans developed by officials, up to 130 designated critical service stations (DCSS) are to be identified where emergency vehicles and other priority road users would be able to refuel.

Sources briefed on emergency plans envisage an “alert state” where stations would be contacted at least four hours before being activated — and an hour before public announcements were made. Staff would be told when restrictions were coming in and who they could give fuel to. For an hour after being activated, they would close so workers could be briefed, signage displayed and forecourts reorganised. Gardaí or members of the Defence Forces may arrive to check the ID of those working for a select group of agencies deemed eligible for emergency fuel.

Those who have seen the plans say the variety of critical or emergency workers eligible for fuel may vary depending on the nature of the crisis; maximum purchase volumes may be imposed; the permitted working hours for delivery drivers could be extended to ensure supply is kept running. A separate plan has been developed to govern bulk deliveries to airports, ports, hospitals, vulnerable domestic customers, power plants and other critical heavy users of fuel.

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This is just one way in which a crisis could appear; one focused on a shortage of oil-based fuels products, and necessitating rapid action to keep essential services flowing. It is, of course, eye-catching; it is also not massively likely at the moment, given the presence of oil reserves on the island and the ongoing functioning of international oil markets. But it is also just one of myriad risks and possible scenarios that have become more likely due to the war in Ukraine, leading to prolonged and intensive debate about Ireland’s energy security.

[ Consumers warned to expect further energy price hikes in coming weeks ]

[ SSE Airtricity’s sharp price rise a stark reminder of grim energy vista ]

[ Price hikes will leave many households €4,000 worse off by end of year ]

At the core of the planning is the Energy Security Emergency Group (ESEG), comprised largely of officials from the Department of the Environment, Communications and Climate (DECC) and chaired by its secretary general, Mark Griffin. He is said to be “no nonsense” in his approach, and unafraid to upbraid members on occasion.

“It’s grown-up stuff. There’s no messing around here. If someone isn’t on top of their brief they’re called up fairly lively,” says one participant. Senior officials from EirGrid, the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland, Gas Networks Ireland, the Commission for Regulation of Utilities and other agencies also sit on it.

It was convened by Martin Fraser, the outgoing secretary general to the Government, before he left. When it first met, he told members to imagine the worst-case scenario and add to it. Ireland was living through times when worst-case scenarios were coming to pass.

‘Nphet for energy’

The structure of the group is reminiscent of the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet), and it has informally been dubbed a “Nphet for energy” — to the annoyance of some members. Barry Quinlan is assistant secretary in charge of the energy division in DECC. His team has been buttressed by the repatriation of experienced officials other State bodies to which they had moved. The energy function in the department had been expanding, but the invasion of Ukraine brought into sharp relief linked issues of price, system security and fuel supply. The ESEG was the response.

Subgroups focus on data and modelling, vulnerable people and policy, oil and gas. In the early days of the crisis, prices for oil and gas began to spike. Both fuels are vital — gas primarily for the electricity system, oil for transportation — but also as a backup to the electricity system. If gas supplies were to tighten, power stations could be run off liquid fuels such as diesel. The interlinked nature of energy security across different areas is a core focus of the group.

While gas was running from the Corrib field and across interconnectors from the UK, minutes from meetings in late March of the oil subgroup show there were concerns about a worst-case scenario in April of Russian oil being completely cut off and markets seizing up.

Plans began to be drafted for prioritising oil products in the case of an emergency: two related plans were drawn up: the Oil Emergency Response Plan (OERP) and the Oil Emergency Allocation Scheme (OEAS), outlining who gets what and when.

There were concerns, documents reveal, about the strategic vulnerability of Dublin Port, where about 60 per cent of liquid fuel is imported — including all the jet fuel used at Dublin Airport. The National Oil Reserve Agency (Nora) began running its emergency response mechanism (ERM), a modelling tool used to monitor supply levels. It was run daily before later being scaled back.

Groups discussed plans to charter a ship, due to concerns about whether one could be found at short notice, to ferry diesel from Whiddy Island, where much of the Nora emergency supply is kept, in the case of a crisis.

At one point, diesel supplies in Dublin — which in turn supplies half the country, dipped as low as two days. While this was not unusual in itself, wider tremors in supply chains marked it as a new vulnerability — but the plan to charter a ship never progressed.

Concerns about oil capacity persisted into summer. A meeting in June heard how commercial stocks around the world were falling amid a loss of refining capacity and associated skilled labour, meaning “there is less of a buffer to counter potential supply shocks”.

During spring, concerns about an immediate supply crunch began to lessen. Minds turned towards developing plans to deal with an emergency if it occurred. The first was to focus on a shortfall in oil supplies. Different scenarios were mapped out, ranging from mild, as had been experienced in March and April when shipments were delayed, to out-and-out disaster.

A worst-case presentation prior to the exercise conducted on oil vulnerabilities in late May, obtained by The Irish Times under freedom-of-information legislation, shows the Government “taking control of the fuel supply system” with an “enduring 50 per cent to 100 per cent supply reduction of diesel”.

The aforementioned rationing and allocation of fuel under the OEAS would be rolled out with risks to the “capacity to maintain societal function and civil order”. There would be a “curtailment of normal societal functions”; work-from-home policies would be advised, to conserve fuel, with “odd number” days also planned, where only vehicles with odd or even numbers on their registrations would be permitted on the road.

At its most acute, decisions would have to be made about whether to prioritise transport, home heating and industry or power stations for fuel shipments.

The plans were shrouded in secrecy, with members of the group confiding that there is a concern that too much information about worst-case scenarios being in the public domain could be a risk in itself.

“There was a little bit of concern,” one member says, “that if you start advertising and doing weekly press briefings you would contribute to a sense of panic.” Minutes from an early briefing show how non-public servants were required to sign non-disclosure agreements.

There was “an onus on entities to keep material confident [sic] and understand that some material is non-shareable”.

There were plans to brief the media about the exercise, but this did not happen, although substantial detail was leaked to the Irish Independent, and has appeared in the Business Post, The Irish Times and elsewhere.

The secrecy rubbed industry representatives up the wrong way, creating tensions with Fuels for Ireland (FFI), formerly known as the Irish Petroleum Industry Association, which feels it is being asked to carry the message to the public. This is reflected in one minute which shows the oil lobby “would prefer to see Govt. take a more proactive approach in reassuring the public about the exercise and supply rather than this being done exclusively by FFI”.

Price pressures

Politicians have been keen to play down the likelihood of worst-case outcomes. This is predictable, even understandable, but Eamon Ryan and others acknowledge that a much more real threat comes from price pressures. These are almost certain to push more and more people into energy poverty this winter, something defined by the Economic and Social Research Institute as spending more than 10 per cent of disposable income on energy. A private analysis done for the ESEG by the institute hammers this home.

Some of this work was released this summer, showing the energy poverty rate had jumped to almost 30 per cent. However, a more extensive analysis given to the ESEG shows that if price increases for energy which were experienced from January 2021 to April 2022 were to be repeated, a massive 69.2 per cent of households would find themselves in energy poverty. This is likely to strengthen the case for more cash supports for households and businesses this winter. It also has moved calls for a windfall tax on energy companies back centre stage, with the Green Party making it a core objective of the budget, despite concerns in the Department of Finance.

Even if a cataclysm does not come to pass, there are tensions between Government and its regulators over security issues. Dermot McCarthy, the former secretary general to the Government, was appointed in June to lead a review into the power system.

Last week, the Commission for Regulation of Utilities (CRU) issued a consultation document proposing a number of new tariffs. While Coalition sources aggressively briefed that they had been let down in terms of advance warnings, the brittleness of the grid is well known. Documents released to The Irish Times show the regulator briefed the ESEG on the exact measures it announced last week as far back as June 21st, and the measures flowed from plans approved even earlier.

The CRU also flagged to the ESEG as far back as April measures it announced this week to protect vulnerable customers. With a winter of discontent beckoning, a scramble is under way to prepare.

Emergency planning

Part of this is streamlining the powers available to Minister for Transport Eamon Ryan in the case of an emergency. There is a major reorganisation envisaged of the powers assigned to the Minister in an emergency. It is referred to in crisis-planning documents as the Government “taking control of the fuel system”.

An overview of proposed new laws shows how emergency planning would be placed on a statutory basis with “the Minister having powers to control the use of fuel”, to provide an emergency planning register of suppliers, and to allow for data transfer from Revenue to provide a list of all filling stations in the State — something that does not exist centrally.

It is understood that draft legislation for an oil emergency contingency planning Bill is being examined by DECC’s legal advisers, with the Fuels (Control of Supplies) Act, 1971, also due to be overhauled to give the Minister more powers over the use of oil on a priority basis. Proposals may be brought to Government soon after the Dáil returns in September.

It is understood too that plans are being progressed on an “alert state” for the country, to be put in place when and if an emergency period is becoming more likely. Technical measures such as limiting the amount of fuel a pump can give out during a transaction are being examined.

Longer-term preparations are also being considered. While Ryan points to renewable energy as a mainstay, many in the energy industry (admittedly, many of whom work with fossil fuels) are adamant that other alternatives must be embraced.

Minutes from the ESEG show that Ireland may become almost totally dependent on gas from the UK within four years, and that upgrades need to be considered to infrastructure to ensure it can handle peak demands.

The Ukraine invasion and the associated energy crisis have sharpened focus — and heaped pressure on from those in Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil who want to see liquefied natural gas terminals built. The oil and gas lobby is continuing to agitate for progress on domestic resources such as the Barryroe oilfield and gas concessions around the existing Corrib field.

More emergency preparedness exercises are planned. The electricity and gas subgroup of the ESEG will run theirs in early September.

All this is playing out in a febrile political atmosphere. This conditions even outwardly benign interventions such as the Government’s “reduce your use” advertising campaign with an internal presentation from April noting that it was being “launched in the context of a backlash against energy-saving tips from a public looking for direct financial assistance from government”.

Despite the abundance of doomsday scenarios, that doesn’t mean the worst case is a likely outcome. Neither does it mean, however, that adverse scenarios are unlikely. In fact, they’re more likely now than at any other time in recent memory. Price, the impact on households and the security of the system are politically combustive.

With winter coming, the Government has much to balance and much to lose.