Census 2022 results lead to suggestion of new six-seat constituencies

The State’s population has risen above five million but new homes lagged the latest growth in numbers, the first Census 2022 data shows.

Preliminary figures from the latest census taken on April 3rd last show that the population increased by 361,671 or 8 per cent over the past six years whereas the number of homes increased by almost 121,000 or 6 per cent over the same period, illustrating the stress on the housing sector.

The population reached 5.12 million as the population rose during the past six years at twice the level of the previous five years.

The latest census shows a continuation of population growth that began in the early 1990s.

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The most recent increase was made up of a rise in the natural population — the higher number of recorded births over registered deaths — of 171,338 and net inward migration of more than 190,000 as the emigration trend of the post-crash years between 2011 and 2016 was reversed.

On average, almost 32,000 people a year moved or returned to the State between 2016 and 2022 compared with a net outflow of almost 5,000 a year in the five years after the economic crisis.

The highest population growth was recorded in Leinster, concentrated in Dublin and the surrounding counties, though Longford — the second least populated county in the State — recorded the biggest percentage increase of 14.1 per cent in the six years, followed by Meath.

The census is normally taken every five years but the record-collecting was postponed last year due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

The Central Statistics Office said the preliminary figures were summaries of headcount data for population and housing with official results not due to be published until next year.

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The population growth could have electoral implications. All but one of the 39 Dáil constituencies now have more than 30,000 people represented by a TD, a level that could trigger a need for more TDs as the Constitution says there must be a TD for every 20,000 to 30,000 people.

Political analyst Odran Flynn called for a change to the Constitution because the latest population growth would require at least 11 more TDs to be elected when the country is already “significantly over-represented” compared with other countries.

“If they don’t change the Constitution the number of TDs is going to increase in every single census given the pattern of population increase,” he said.

Dáil representation

Dr Adrian Kavanagh of Maynooth University’s Department of Geography said that an increase in Dáil members from the current 160 to 176 or 178 would future-proof against further growth.

He suggested that six-seat constituencies should be permitted in Donegal, Wexford and Tipperary as it would help protect county boundaries from being redrawn.

In a sign of the pressure on the housing sector, the preliminary census data showed that Kildare was the only county that experienced higher growth in housing than in its population.

The number of vacant dwellings, excluding holiday homes, fell to 166,752, a reduction of 9 per cent from 183,312 vacant dwellings in 2016.

According to the reasons collected by census enumerators for vacant properties — often confirmed locally — one in five people said a home was vacant because it was a rental property.

This was highest in Galway city (38 per cent of properties) and Dublin city (30 per cent) where higher vacancy rates may be explained by properties being unoccupied due to short-term or Airbnb lets, or between lettings, or where properties were advertised as being for rent.