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Thu 05 May 2007Getting a high-tech handle on forecasting

Forecasting by computer is based on a mathematical model of the atmosphere. Given initial values of temperature and pressure at a certain time and spot, expected values of these elements at some future time can be calculated using the known laws of physics.

If this same operation is carried out for thousands of points, and at many different levels in the atmosphere, a new weather map evolves. The computer steps forward minute by minute, hour by hour, until it arrives at a forecast perhaps a week ahead of the initial values.

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