German might likely to see off Messi-inspired Argentina

Devoted fans set to get behind South American finalists

Such have been the numbers of Argentine fans trundling around Brazil to games at this World Cup that the faint rumble of their convoy returning to Rio may even have been audible back at home.

Inside the Maracanã tomorrow night they’ll make themselves heard, but somehow it seems unlikely to be enough.

With honours even so far, Germany go into this third final between the two sides as firm favourites. And while no one in their camp will need to be reminded that they looked good two and four years ago before being dismantled at the semi-final stage by opponents who simply looked much better, that much seems to be more or less out of the question this time around.

Argentina could, of course, very well emerge as winners in the cradle of Brazilian football, not least because Lionel Messi has already shown during these past few weeks a knack for being the difference between teams when it matters. Still, their most likely starting point is to ensure they are not beaten.

READ MORE

Joachim Löw will take some comfort from that for the defeats by Spain and Italy that marked his side’s exits from their last two major championships were uncomfortable affairs. Here, it seems, the issue will be whether his side can break down a team that has not conceded a goal in the knockout stages while also keeping their resident genius at bay. Success in this endeavour is far from assured but abject failure looks a pretty remote prospect.

It is a little odd that a team like Argentina, that travelled to this tournament with what seemed an embarrassment of attacking riches, has been so poor in that department. Manager Alejandro Sabella

was initially forced into a tactical rethink by Messi who wanted a more adventurous approach. But with Angel Di Maria and Sergio Aguero injured since, a quiet accommodation has been struck.

Against lowly Iran, the Argentinians were fortunate not to concede. And on the basis of that game it would be impossible to see them successfully resisting the multipronged attack of a German team that hammered the hosts.

In Belo Horizonte, however, the South Americans pushed relentlessly for the emphatic victory their fans anticipated. Here, there will be no such sense of adventure or expectation and so, with the outstanding Javier Mascherano at the heart of the team's first real line of defence, the back four should again mount a stubborn resistance.

The Germans have already shown what they can achieve when they hit their stride. And having scored more than twice as many goals as their opponents in this tournament so far they will be confident of adding to their tally of 18 in this encounter.

Thomas Müller has again been outstanding over the past month and his movement will require almost as much attention as Messi’s, but it is around and behind him that things have really fallen into place. Bastian Schweinsteiger, who will take a lot of the responsibility for marshalling the Barcelona star, and Sami Khedira have timed their return to form nicely while Toni Kroos and Mesut Özil played critical roles in the battering dished out to Brazil four days ago.

However, the

German defence remains a concern and after a rethink across the rest of it, Benedikt Howedes at left back remains the most obvious vulnerability. Messi and company seem certain to target him. There is enough evidence to suggest that their back four can be unsettled, but much will depend on whether Argentina can impose themselves sufficiently at the other end to allow their midfield to support the attack.

It is a point touched upon by Aguero who, having played 40 minutes of the semi-final against the Netherlands, is in contention to start.

“It is clear that Argentina always go out to win. We want to have control of the ball but sometimes during the game you have to be cautious and we know that Germany is a great team that know each other off by heart having played together for many years,” he said.

"Germany were always the favourites, along with Brazil, to win the World Cup, " suggested the striker. "They continue to be so now. We need to play our own game and it suits us that all the pressure is on them."

Argentina, in fact, was probably more fancied than Löw’s at the tournament’s outset but his own form has been one of several things that has altered that perception.

An injury to Di Maria was another. And while the midfielder has been battling to get back in recent days his inclusion would look an even bigger gamble than Aguero’s. Ultimately neither may feature at the outset.

Whoever does, they will be well cheered by devoted supporters. Fans of the team have been prepared to pay such incredible prices for tickets here over the last few weeks that it’s hard to imagine too many neutrals revisiting the temptation.

Not that the 200 million locals are exactly neutral you understand. A German victory, much more than a bronze medal for Brazil, you suspect, is what they crave now and it would be the tournament’s final surprise if they don’t get that consolation.

Emmet Malone

Emmet Malone

Emmet Malone is Work Correspondent at The Irish Times