Leinster should triumph but fans may need to be patient

Ospreys have funny habit of spoiling the party

Leinster may still have regrets about how their European crown slipped, but their seasonal run-in offers opportunities galore for redemption and extended farewells in front of their own public, beginning tonight. Joe Schmidt's men host their Ospreys bugbearers at the RDS knowing that a win of any hue will ensure a home RaboDirect Pro12 semi-final, and leave them with three knock-out games in a row at the RDS to complete a league-Challenge Cup double.

Against that, anything less than a win and rather than hosting the in-form Warriors, they run the risk of facing them in Glasgow next weekend if the latter end Eric Elwood’s Connacht tenure on an anti-climactic note in Galway tonight.

There is also the added sweetener of ending the Ospreys’ tenuous hold on the league title should Leinster win tonight, although even if they win, the Ospreys would need an unlikely helping hand by Treviso in Llanelli.

Mindful of their potentially arduous run-in, Schmidt has made seven changes from the side which thrillingly dissected Biarritz here last Saturday, and thus starts only three of Leinster's half-dozen Lions, namely Rob Kearney, Jonny Sexton and the recalled Seán O'Brien, albeit with Brian O'Driscoll and Cian Healy on the bench.

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Fergus McFadden moves to outside centre with Andrew Conway restored to the wing in an otherwise unchanged and potent backline.

Up front, Jack McGrath, Seán Cronin and Jamie Hagan come in for Healy, Richardt Strauss (also on the bench) and the injured Mike Ross. Quinn Roux comes in for Devin Toner in the secondrow, while there are two injury-enforced changes in the backrow, where Rhys Ruddock replaces Kevin McLaughlin at blindside and O’Brien taking over from last week’s man of the match Jamie Heaslip, who has a badly gashed leg, at number eight. Gordon D’Arcy’s calf strain has made progress and he should come back into calculations for next weekend’s semi-final.

The Ospreys' odds on reaching the semi-finals and thus retaining their crown are slim, yet if this is to be their seasonal finale, it is a measure of their intent that head coach Steve Tandy is starting three of their quintet of Lions forwards.

Searching examination
In addition to Adam Jones, who is liable to give young Jack McGrath a searching examination, Alun Wyn Jones and Justin Tipuric, Ian Evans is on the bench, with only the injured Richard Hibbard (knee) hors de combat.

The Ospreys gave themselves a mountain to climb by losing their first three games, leaving them bottom of the table at that juncture, but had manoeuvred themselves back into contention with a trademark surge of five unbeaten games before their 17-35 reversal in Glasgow a fortnight ago.

Leinster’s only defeat in their last 14 contests in all competitions was 18-22 at home to Ulster in the League at the end of March but this fixture has uncanny echoes of the Ospreys ending a long unbeaten home run in the last round last season, with Dan Biggar’s late touchline conversion.

Similarly, of course, they turned party poopers extraordinaire when subsequently winning the Grand Final at the RDS last season. In all, Leinster have won just one of the sides’ last seven meetings, and even their 19-10 defeat at the Liberty Stadium in round eight constitutes their only defeat to a Welsh region in any competition this season.

Leinster are the highest scoring team in the league, with Ian Madigan not a bad back-up to Sexton given he has landed his last 20 kicks in this competition, but the Ospreys boast the meanest defence, as well as a knack for spoiling parties, so home team and crowd alike may have to be patient.
LEINSTER: R Kearney; A Conway, F McFadden, I Madigan, I Nacewa; J Sexton, I Boss; J McGrath, S Cronin, J Hagan, L Cullen (capt), Q Roux, R Ruddock, S Jennings, S O'Brien. Replacements: R Strauss, C Healy, M Bent, D Toner, D Ryan, J Cooney, A Goodman, B O'Driscoll.
OSPREYS: R Fussell; T Habberfield, A Beck, B John, R Jones; D Biggar, R Webb; D Jones, S Baldwin, A Jones, A Wyn Jones (capt), J King, J Tipuric, S Lewis, J Bearman. Replacements: D Arhip, R Bevington, C Griffiths, I Evans, M Allen, M Morgan, T Isaacs, J Spratt.
Referee: Nigel Owens (Wales).

Gerry Thornley

Gerry Thornley

Gerry Thornley is Rugby Correspondent of The Irish Times