Rugby World Cup 2015: predicting Ireland's starting XV

The World Cup opening ceremony and first match, between England and Fiji at Twickenham, is a year away tomorrow, with Ireland's opener against Canada at the Millennium Stadium 12 months away from Friday. The hard sell, with regard to ticket prices, is already under way, with the Blarney Army clearly expected to swell the expats across the water in even greater numbers than was the case in New Zealand as Ireland attempt to boldly go where no Irish team has gone before.

Rather sheepishly, given this is our eighth World Cup, the new territory would merely amount to a first ever semi-final. Furthermore, it’s not as if Ireland can blame unfavourable draws and once again, of all the first seeds to have been pitted against, France under Philippe Georges Saint-André – under whom they have won 11 of 29 games – was eminently preferable to being drawn against any of the first three in the betting, namely New Zealand, the hosts England or South Africa.

Admittedly, history has shown us that France are always capable of producing at least one huge performance, and four years ago they should have won the final after losing to Tonga. Nevertheless, going to Paris and clinching the Six Nations title last March to end a long losing run against their bête noire was all the more valuable as a psychological marker before the World Cup, and all the more so if Ireland repeat the feat on Valentine's Day at the Aviva in the Six Nations.

French connection

It would appear, therefore, that the games against France will define Joe Schmidt’s reign more than any other, even if the All Blacks’ game(s) might stand out more in the memory.

Avoiding Wales from the batch of third seeds,and drawing Italy for the second World Cup in a row, was no harm either, with the reward for winning the pool being a quarter-final against Argentina as opposed to New Zealand.

In addition to a favourable draw, and geographical and climactic conditions, Ireland’s status as one of the tournament’s best supported teams ensures that the four pool games take place on consecutive weekends, spaced seven or eight days apart, although the last three are all late on Sunday afternoons.

They build nicely from Canada, at the Millennium Stadium, to Romania at Wembley and Italy at the Olympic Stadium, before returning to the Millennium Stadium to play France, and this should enable Schmidt to utilise the bulk of his squad in the opening two games before pitching up at optimum strength against Italy and, most certainly, France.

All things being equal, Schmidt would pitch up against France on October 11th with a team closely resembling the starting XV that kicked off the Six Nations-clinching win in Paris.

Player welfare

Ireland’s player welfare programme makes this a more feasible proposition than is the case for Saint-André and les bleus, where player welfare is entirely at the mercy of the all powerful French clubs who are inundated with imported players. Just look at French and European club champions Toulon who will supply only Mathieu Bastareaud and, at a push, Maxime Mermoz, to the French team.

Of course, one change has already been forced on Schmidt, namely at 13 due to the retirement of you-know-who. It would seem remarkable that Ireland might boldly go where no Irish team with Brian O’Driscoll had ever gone before, and all the more so were that to include Paul O’Connell as well. Even Superman’s powers will be stretched by then given he will be 10 days away from his 36th birthday when Ireland play France, but his presence still seems invaluable. Irish and Munster packs simply play better when he is in their midst.

Similarly, Cian Healy, Rory Best and Mike Ross still appear a frontrow set in stone at this far remove, even if there is more cover for the first two. By contrast, it will be interesting to see if Tadgh Furlong can increase his workload and experience over the next few months, including in the November Tests, and emerge as a contender, if even as cover, at tighthead.

Devin Toner’s aerial skills have become invaluable, all the more so with his vastly improved and more effective workrate, and while Iain Henderson is in a race against time to be fit for the Six Nations it will be a surprise if such a huge talent misses out altogether.

One of the players of the 2011 tournament, across the board, Seán O’Brien will strengthen Ireland’s ball carrying potency and while Peter O’Mahony is sure to remind us of the intensity he brings to almost any game, the one winner from the Argentina tour was Rhys Ruddock. Slightly younger and bigger, Ruddock will continue to throw down the gauntlet for that number six jersey.

Murray and Sexton

Compensating for the retirement of Ireland’s greatest ever rugby player is the emergence of Conor Murray and Johnny Sexton. Each has still some way to go to emulate the body of work put together by, say, Peter Stringer and Ronan O’Gara, but they have the ability to become Ireland’s best halfbacks.

Heaven help Schmidt and Ireland, however, if either, and especially Sexton, is injured given Eoin Reddan has vastly more experience than any of Sexton’s putative young understudies – Paddy Jackson, Ian Madigan, JJ Hanrahan et al.

The summer tour proved a missed opportunity for Robbie Henshaw and, by extension, Schmidt, and so the midfield permutations are almost endless. The now naturalised Jared Payne and Henshaw are the leading candidates at 13, and while the summer tour looked like a backward step for him, Luke Marshall will remain in the frame.

However, Stuart Olding, capped on the 2013 tour, could be the bolter in the backs a la Furlong, and likewise it will be interesting to see what kind of opportunity is afforded him in the November window. The permutations will become even greater if Gordon D'Arcy reverts to outside centre, which is not beyond the bounds of possibility.

Among the plethora of missing wingers last season, Tommy Bowe looks more what Schmidt wants in an all-action winger than Simon Zebo. The re-born Andrew Trimble will be hard to shift on last season's form and, as with Sexton, O'Connell and co, Rob Kearney is more simply irreplaceable than most.

Gerry Thornley's Starting XV v France - IRELAND: Rob Kearney; Tommy Bowe, Gordon D'Arcy, Stuart Olding, Andrew Trimble; Johnny Sexton, Conor Murray; Cian Healy, Rory best, Mike Ross, Devin Toner, Paul O'Connell (capt), Peter O'Mahony, Sean O'Brien, Jamie Heaslip. Replacements: Jack Mcgrath, Sean Cronin, Tadgh Furlong, Iain Henderson, Rhys Ruddock, Eoin Reddan, Ian Madigan, Dave Kearney.

Gavin Cummiskey’s Starting XV v France

Presuming an injury free miracle, Joe Schmidt’s two major conundrums are his midfield pairing and whether the thirty-somethings avoid the black lights. Stalwarts like Gordon D’Arcy, Mike Ross and Paul O’Connell will be 35 when the tournament commences.

The rightful heir to the 13 throne is not Jared Payne, nor is it Robbie Henshaw. Come in from the cold Luke Fitzgerald, your time is now.

Devin Toner and Donnacha Ryan miss out as Iain Henderson begins his ascent towards Mal O’Kelly peaks. Jack McGrath at tighthead requires some imagining but what if it worked? What if he rumbled into battle alongside Cian Healy? What dreams may come after that. IRELAND: Rob Kearney; Tommy Bowe, Luke Fitzgerald, Luke Marshall, Simon Zebo; Jonathan Sexton, Conor Murray; Cian Healy, Rory Best, Jack McGrath, Iain Henderson, Paul O’Connell, Peter O’Mahony, Sean O’Brien, Jamie Heaslip.

John O’Sullivan’s Starting XV v France

Luke Fitzgerald would start for me if he was guaranteed to be fit. Jared Payne is unlucky, so too Robbie Henshaw, Andrew Trimble, Dave Kearney and Ian Madigan, all with strong claims to make the run-on team. Simon Zebo has the X-factor.

The pack also offers a litany of close calls; Richardt Strauss, Sean Cronin, Jack McGrath, Iain Henderson, Rhys Ruddock, Chris Henry and bolters in Tadgh Furlong and CJ Stander. I’d go for Peter O’Mahony as an openside flanker.

Ireland coach Joe Schmidt possesses the playing resources to be flexible in his approach depending on the opposition without deviating from his core values. The bench would afford a proper impact.

IRELAND: Rob Kearney; Tommy Bowe, Gordon D'Arcy, Stuart Olding, Craig Gilroy; Jonathan Sexton, Conor Murray; Cian Healy, Rory Best, Martin Moore; Paul O'Connell, Devin Toner; Sean O'Brien, Peter O'Mahony, Jamie Heaslip.