Ireland face moment of truth as they bid to reach first semi-final

Now it's win or bust time. If Ireland are to boldly go where no other has gone before, they're going to have to do it without three warriors up front and a lieutenant in the backs. Step forward then other leaders and other lieutenants, as they did a week ago. And this is, after all, a World Cup quarter-final. There are only two games potentially any bigger.

As Rory Best assumed the responsibility of leadership alongside Jamie Heaslip, he observed of his team-mates: "They're not going to have their hand held by Paulie's leadership this week. We've got take ownership for the leadership now, and I think it's a good place to be for us. Come Sunday at one o'clock on the pitch there won't be anyone to hold your hand, and if it's anything like last week you won't be able to hear each other anyway."

Five times

This is also the point at which Ireland usually exit World Cups. Five times they have reached the quarter-finals, and five times they have lost. The two occasions Ireland even failed to reach the last eight was because those dastardly Pumas stood in the way.

So what can make this different?

"I'm always incredibly nervous and I'm a realist in that nothing makes it different," admitted Joe Schmidt yesterday, when he talked about his "love-hate relationship" with coaching, and as the week advances and the kick-off nears, the love ebbs.

“Irish teams have been really well prepared in the past and haven’t gotten over the line. The Irish team four years ago were really well prepared and I think that they were incredibly disappointed at the end of the day and we will be too.

“I guess the group have demonstrated that, in adversity, they can respond and I think there’s something in the Irish psyche that if you are beaten around a little bit, there’s a resilience and resolve that gets demonstrated. I would be really confident that that will be demonstrated. Is that going to be enough? We’ll find out on Sunday.”

Ireland have assuredly given themselves a better chance by avoiding the All Blacks, although Saturday night at 8pm would have appealed to the Green Army. The flip side is whether they can scale the same heights of collective performances and intensity back to back, a week later. Historically, that's been a tricky one for Irish teams, and Daniel Hourcade could rest many of his frontliners against Namibia and make 10 changes in reverting to his preferred selection now.

Brunch-time on a Sunday is no time for a World Cup quarter-final. No doubt so as ITV can accommodate The X Factor in their schedules. It should never have been allowed but, of course, he who pays the piper calls the tune.

More disconcertingly, this Argentinian team has more X factor than France. They resemble what France used to be, with a heavy All Blacks’ influence courtesy of Graham Henry’s involvement, and thus are also significantly more dangerous than France. They are far better coached, and have more individual talent and more game-breakers.

Worry

They “worry” Schmidt from “front to back”: from the trademark frontrow; the remarkable athleticism of young lock Tomas Lavanini, whose performances blew Schmidt and O’Connell away on Ireland’s tour two summers ago; a rampaging backrow; a livewire scrumhalf in Martin Landajo who’ll tap and go from anywhere; a superb, goal-kicking outhalf in Nicolás Sánchez; El Mago in the middle; and an outside three with “incredible footwork”.

Both wingers have scored in each of their last three games, but their form guide against Georgia, Tonga and Namibia is hard to gauge and their defence has leaked, while the All Blacks did nearly put them to the sword in the last 30.

Schmidt and co will also have strike moves and double bluff moves designed for them, and Johnny Sexton is hopefully fit enough to put his stamp on this World Cup.

These Pumas will also mix it up as of yore. They will be physical and will compete fiercely at the breakdown, where many beyond their fine backrow can contest the ball and poach. The performance of Jérôme Garcès will be critical.

If he polices the hindmost foot offside line (a relatively forlorn hope admittedly) and is strong and consistent at the breakdown, then all the better for the game and, one suspects, Ireland.

Sudden death

In the event of a tie, there would be 20 minutes extra time followed, if still level, by 10 minutes of sudden death and then, if necessary, a penalty shoot-out. You’d sincerely hope it won’t come to that.

It's conceivable that in trimming the Rugby Championship to one round due to the World Cup, they might effectively keep the second round until the last two weekends of this tournament, were South Africa, New Zealand and Australia to confirm favouritism.

According to the bookies, Ireland have the best chance of the World Cup averting that scenario, and with it that hoary old chestnut about the gulf between the hemispheres, albeit that this is the closest quarter-final to call.

But as Best also put it: “This is knock-out rugby and the chance to make history.”

It may well prove to be the closest of the quarter-finals, but Ireland might still have the nerve to pull through.

Overall head-to-head: Pl 15 – Ireland 10 wins, Argentina 5 wins.

Last five meetings: (2014) Argentina 17 Ireland 23; Argentina 17 Ireland 29. (2012) Ireland 46 Argentina 24. (2010) Ireland 29 Argentina 9. (2008) Ireland 17 Argentina 3. (2007, WC) Argentina 30 Ireland 17 (Paris).

Betting (Paddy Powers): ½ Ireland, 17/1 Drw, 7/4 Argentina. Handicap odds (Argentina + 5pts) 11/10 Ireland, 22/1 Draw, 10/11 Argentina.

Forecast: Ireland to win.