Gerry Thornley: Provinces should be wary of historic turnarounds

In the build-up to Sunday's meeting between Harlequins and Ulster, the former's Director of Rugby John Kingston recalled a conversation he had with Paul O'Connell. It was some time after the European Cup quarter-final between the London club and Munster at the Stoop in 2013. Kingston had tweaked the Quins lineout, as he'd been unhappy with some aspects of it, and O'Connell revealed to Kingston that this had thrown him and his Munster team-mates after weeks of analysing.

Kingston cited this as an example of how the Irish provinces begin eyeing European games weeks in advance. By contrast, he reckoned, the English and French clubs operate on more of a week-per-week basis.

However true, certainly the European Champions Cup focuses the Irish mindset, and the format of the competition is geared toward peaking in two-week blocks. In recording four wins out four over the weekend in Europe for the first time since round five in 2013-14, Leinster, Munster and Ulster all beat Premiership opposition, without so much as coughing up a losing bonus point between them, while Connacht won away in Brive.

Throw in the Ospreys’ thrilling if at times anarchically bad-tempered victory away to Northampton, and the Pro14 won all four meetings with their Premiership counterparts. With Wasps the latest to feel the full force of La Rochelle, Clermont channelled their anger over the re-scheduling of Monday’s game with Saracens with a 46-14 bonus point win which was as stunning as it was a statement. This latest defeat for the champions, which completed a first ever winless weekend in the European Cup for English clubs, also suggests this tournament is quite open.

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Contention

So far the Irish quartet have recorded 10 wins in 12 matches, with one draw and only one defeat, namely when Ulster ran into La Rochelle. Leinster and Munster top their pools, as do Connacht, while Ulster are still in contention.

The big guns came out to play for Ulster, notably Iain Henderson, and by dint of beating Harlequins in the Stoop they have also ended Quins' hopes and, by extension, interest in the competition.

Danny Care and Chris Robshaw having failed their HIAs, given the five-day turnaround before meeting again at the Kingspan next Friday, Kingston is likely to field a fairly depleted side. Such selections can, of course, swing from the hip and be dangerous, but Ulster should now take eight or nine points from these December rounds.

Completing back-to-back wins a week apart is notoriously difficult, witness just four out of ten last season, not least as the losers possess one of the most powerful motives in sport – revenge. That is perhaps heightened at home, and, as a rule, it’s probably preferable to have the “second leg” of these back-to-back games at home.

Not that backing up an away win at home a week later is a given. The weekend results leave Leinster particularly well placed, with away wins against the leaders of both the Premiership and the Guinness Pro14’s Conference A leaving them in charge of Pool 3. However, Exeter are not only a better side than Harlequins, they will be fighting for their lives in the Aviva Stadium and, according to my Exeter taxi driver, will bring an estimated 10,000 Chiefs fans over to Dublin next Saturday. It would be no surprise also if this is a contrastingly high-scoring affair.

Last Friday, Leo Cullen was musing aloud as to the wild fluctuations in performance which these back-to-back games can throw up. The most relevant occurred four seasons ago when Leinster beat Northampton 40-7 at Franklin's Gardens and a week later lost 18-9 at the Aviva Stadium.

Cullen also recalled the case of Leinster-Bourgoin in the 2012-13 season, when Leinster won the first leg at home by 53-7, and a week later lost 30-28 away to the same opponents.

He then cited the wildest turnaround of them all, in the 1998-99 season, albeit in rounds one and six, when Toulouse beat Ebbw Vale by 108-16 at home, and contrived to lose 19-11 away to the same opponents.

Gold-dust

It’s also funny how this competition invariably throws up one group wherein away wins are like gold-dust, leading to an uber competitive pool. If Leicester and Racing turn the tables at home next weekend against Munster and Castres in Pool 4, then three or four points could covering the entire quartet. While Munster are sitting prettily enough with two home wins and an away draw, realistically they’ll need at least one away win.

If the Ospreys-Northampton rematch looks like being one of the weekend's short straws for the referee, the same could be true of the Leicester-Munster rematch, all the more so in light of Matt O'Connor's post-match broadsides at Munster and Jerome Garces in general, and Andrew Conway in particular.

As Donncha O’Callaghan highlighted in the aftermath of Munster’s win last Saturday, it looked significant that one of the club’s longest servants, Geordan Murphy, was the one addressing the squad in the away dressing-room.

Imagine if the shoe was on the foot, and Munster were responding to a 38-10 away day thumping a week later at a capacity Thomond Park?

There’s also the example of Leicester being routed 38-0 by Ulster at Ravenhill in 2003, and six days later at Welford Road, Leicester winning 49-7.

Besides, Munster only have to recall how a limited Leicester responded to last season’s 38-0 defeat in Thomond by winning 18-16 in Welford Road a week later to show how a wounded Tiger can indeed be a dangerous animal.

gthornley@irishtimes.com