Ruby the Walsh likely to be out On His Own

Finding the winner of the Aintree Grand National has traditionally been jump racing’s most powerful selling point to the general public. So for those in charge of the world’s most famous steeplechase it must be sobering to have to anticipate 4.15 today with anxiety. Because for officialdom at least, far from selling the sport, the National has become something of a headache.

Of course for millions worldwide little will change in terms of the National mechanics. The race still serves as the sort of betting beano the name of its first ever victor – Lottery – suggested it would become. But even the most casual of once-a-year punters must realise this National comes coated with more layers than simply finding the winner.

Certainly for racing as an entity, the desire for a casualty-free race will supersede everything else. After the death of two horses in the race last year, and two others the year before, the authorities will have everything crossed that everyone – horses and riders – come back safely from the most famous challenge in racing.

That will prevent immediate anti-National headlines and, to use the popular cliché, kick the controversy can down the road to 2014. But the problem in the can will remain the same: how to keep the vast middle-ground of public opinion convinced that the Grand National is a fair challenge for the horses involved.

Those trenchantly opposed to the race are no more likely to their views swayed by argument as those in favour of it. And it is the National's fate to have become the focal point of wider ethical issues, with animal rights groups taking advantage of the race's profile to raise questions their opponents fear may yet be directed towards jump racing as a whole.

Stark reality
There's no getting away from the one Grand National certainty which is that it is only a matter of time before another horse suffers fatal injuries in the race.

And that is a stark reality that pertains to every race. The only difference with the National is profile and a statistical occurrence hardly coincidental to the scale of the challenge.

For those of us who argue there are far greater wrongs to be corrected in the animal kingdom than asking creatures specially bred for the task to run for our entertainment, there is no room for complacency, even after the latest remedial work on the famous fences that leaves the National closer than ever to becoming just another marathon handicap chase.

Aintree still hangs on to enough of its romance though to make the elimination of drop-fences, more pliable fence frames and the move of the start further down the track barely noticeable tweaks to once-a-year viewers. It is a delicate balancing act, preserving enough of what makes the National unique, while also being seen to be scrupulously fair. But it is an important one.

The decision by Heineken (owners of the John Smith's brand) to pull their sponsorship after today, and the noticeable lack of a corporate cavalry charge to replace them, is as sure a sign as any of how shaky the National's foundations could easily become. But it is remarkable how the old race can survive what's thrown at it.

Forty years ago, Red Rum and Crisp provided perhaps the most famous National of all and it took place in front of an almost deserted Aintree. As an event, it looked on its knees. Twenty years ago came the race that never was, all knocker-elastic ineptitude at the start. But the National bounced back from that too.

In terms of headlines the perfect 'PR' result today would probably be victory for Seabass and Katie Walsh. The synchronicity of the first woman to ride a National winner, 30 years after Jenny Pitman became the first woman to train the winner, would be perfect.

In fact, in an ideal scenario, Walsh would just edge out her brother Ruby on board On His Own, and it is also part of the National’s mystique that it can throw up fairytale results.

Victory for any of the 14 Irish challengers would certainly be a fairytale in its own way, and a first win for the raiders in six years. Tom Taaffe's Treacle could be one of them to go well at a big price but in terms of a winner, On His Own credentials are hard to quibble with.