Australia hot favourite for Irish Derby

Shock results are rare in the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby and since the one horse bookmakers believe capable of giving Australia a race may not even line up, this evening’s €1.25 million Curragh showpiece could yet

be a mere lucrative workout for the horse Aidan O’Brien describes as the best he’s had.

O'Brien's 10 Irish Derby wins in the last 16 years is perhaps the most remarkable example of classic dominance anywhere in the world. In four of those years he filled the first three places, only emphasising the unequalled power of a Coolmore Stud that has had 11 Irish Derby victories in that same period.

Ruler Of The World’s defeat last year interrupted a run of seven in a row for racing’s most powerful operation. But if Australia does not win today that earlier loss will pall in comparison. This would be especially so since fears that soft ground might rule out his participation have disappeared to such an extent that firmer conditions now threaten to deny his most serious opponent a tilt at the title.

Soft ground contender

Kingston Hill, owned by

Paul Smith

, whose father Derrick part-owns Australia, was two lengths off the favourite at Epsom, a performance that convinced his trainer that some cut in the ground is ideal for the colt.

Roger Varian

has confirmed he will walk the track this morning to decide if Kingston Hill runs.

The going at the Curragh yesterday was “good to firm” with the track management even considering the possibility of overnight watering, although rogue showers make this a delicate balancing act.

“The worry from reports I’m getting is that it is still pretty quick and I’m not going to run him on ground I’m not happy with,” said Varian. “It doesn’t need to be soft. Decent ground will be fine for him.”

Should Kingston Hill be taken out it would reduce Australia’s opposition to three stable companions who all finished well behind him at Epsom, where Dermot Weld’s Fascinating Rock was eighth. The only other contender is Ponfeigh who won a couple of ordinary races within eight days of each other earlier this month.

If Kingston Hill does not run, some bookmakers were predicting a starting price of 1 to 10 for Australia, shorter than Camelot at 1 to 5 two years ago. It is a price to suggest defeat would constitute perhaps the greatest shock in Irish racing history.

The implications for Ireland’s most valuable and prestigious race to be effectively reduced to a €725,000 workout for one outstanding horse means there probably will be plenty of prayers offered for overnight rain at HQ.

"There are a few showers around and we could catch some of them. They'd be welcome actually," said track manager Paul Hensey. "If we didn't catch any of them we might put a splash of water on tonight. It's a fine balance."

Balancing the needs of TV means the Derby goes off at 5.30pm to facilitate RTÉ’s World Cup coverage. But the balance of probabilities rests so heavily on Australia’s side that the word shock is unlikely to be sufficient if he’s beaten.