The primary driver of the rise in global output is expected to be a 75 per cent jump in global average real output per head, as the prosperity of emerging economies catches up with that of high-income countries

Our ancestors lived in eras we call the Stone Age, the Bronze Age and the Iron Age. Ours is the “fossil-fuel age”. The energy we have extracted from t(...)

China saw a rise of 70 percentage points in the ratio of corporate and household debt to GDP between 2007 and last year. Photograph: Johannes Eisele/AFP/Getty

Balance sheets matter. This is the biggest lesson of the financial crises that have rolled across the world economy. Changes in balance sheets shape t(...)

At the very least US spenders will, once again, have to pull not only their own economy, but much of the rest of the world. Photograph: Michael McCloskey

Why is the dollar so strong? It has soared 25 per cent on a real trade-weighted basis in the past four years, evoking memories of ascents in the early(...)

An elderly woman reacts as her acquaintances board a bus to flee due to a military conflict in Debaltseve, Ukraine. The IMF is seeking to negotiate a new multiyear extended fund facility with the troubled country. Photograph: Sergey Polezhaka /Reuters

The West does not like to think it is at war with Russia. Yet the Russian government seems to think it is at war with the West. For President Vladimir(...)

Yanis Varoufakis, Greece’s finance minister (left), with George Osborne, the UK chancellor of the exchequer, in London on Monday. Photograph: Matt Dunham/Pool/Bloomberg

Maximum austerity and minimum reform have been the outcome of the Greek crisis so far. The fiscal and external adjustments have been painful. But the (...)

Presidential guards parade before newly appointed ministers and deputy ministers at a swearing in ceremony outside the presidential palace in Athens on January 27th, 2015. Photograph: Marko Djurica/Reuters

Sometimes the right thing to do is the wise thing. That is the case now for Greece. Done correctly, debt reduction would benefit Greece and the rest o(...)

The SNB has embraced the risk of deflation from which the ECB wishes to escape. Photograph: Reuters

These are exciting times in European central banking. Last Thursday the Swiss National Bank suddenly terminated its successful peg to the euro. This w(...)

Political leaders walking in solidarity after the attacks in  Paris. Photograph: EPA

How are we to understand last week’s events in Paris? Why are people prepared to kill and die for their beliefs? How should liberal democracies respon(...)

“The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable,” – John Kenneth Galbraith

As the late John Kenneth Galbraith remarked: “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” But that does not mean(...)

Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made. This famous remark of German philosopher Immanuel Kant is particularly relevan(...)