The findings of the latest Irish Times/MRBI poll, published in today's editions, underline how the Sheedy affair has had a dramatic impact on popular support for the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, and for the Fianna Fail party. The public is clearly dismayed by the Taoiseach's evasive and duplicitous handling of the affair. In several key respects, the poll is the worst for the Government since it took office. Mr Ahern's personal rating, at 58 per cent, is his lowest since the general election. The levels of support for Fianna Fail (46 per cent) and public satisfaction with the Government (51 per cent) are also at their lowest since this administration was formed almost two years ago.
The sense of unease about the Sheedy affair extends to all political and social groupings. Some 71 per cent of electors are dissatisfied with the manner in which the Government has handled the affair and a remarkable 79 per cent do not believe that the public has been fully informed of what happened. Significantly, there is a palpable sense of unease within Fianna Fail itself; 62 per cent of Fianna Fail voters are dissatisfied with the Government's handling of the affair. Clearly there are lessons here for Mr Ahern. A very sizeable number of electors who were ready to endorse the Taoiseach in the immediate aftermath of the Belfast Agreement no longer have the same degree of trust in his leadership. The public expects something more than high-minded declarations of transparency and accountability. It expects Mr Ahern to deliver on these commitments and to maintain the kind of high standards befitting his office.
As is customary after the whiff of political scandal, support for the Progressive Democrats has increased and is now at its highest level since this administration was formed. The PD leader, Ms Harney, also maintains a spectacularly high personal rating. By contrast, Fine Gael will be disappointed with the continuing low level of personal support for Mr Bruton, despite the impressive and vigorous manner in which he pursued the Sheedy affair in the Dail.
There are, as yet, few tangible signs that the Opposition parties are gaining from Mr Ahern's discomfort. Support for Fine Gael has actually declined by one point although the party's performance since April of last year has increased by four points. Labour has increased by one point to 15 per cent but the electoral fillip expected after the merger with Democratic Left has still to materialise. For all that, Mr Quinn, at this early stage in his leadership, has reason to be pleased. Satisfaction with his leadership is still at a respectable 55 per cent and, significantly, Labour has edged ahead of Fine Gael in Dublin and is matching its vote in urban areas generally.
The poll would appear to indicate that the parties face a very volatile electorate in the forthcoming local and European elections. This will be the first real test of opinion about Mr Ahern's handling of the Sheedy affair and the succession of other scandals which have clung to him. On the basis of today's poll, Fianna Fail will face the electorate with much less confidence than it might have expected only six months ago.