Opinion: we will see more industrial unrest in coming months

Unemployment has fallen again in the latest figures. From a high just a few years ago of 15 per cent, the figures have now almost halved.

A survey of employers by the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development has revealed that more than half of employers increased pay last year and plan to do so again next year. No employer in the survey intends to reduce pay.

The number of redundancies last year was just over 4,000, compared to 77,000 in 2001 (during the boom). Pay restoration for public servants under the Lansdowne Road Agreement is moving into gear.

There was a period of a few months last year where there were no industrial disputes in Ireland, and we know the numbers of days lost to industrial action have been declining for many years.

Let’s keep the recovery going…oh, wait…To outline these facts, given the events of the past few weeks, seems somewhat jarring.

We have seen disputes involving nurses, workers at the Cadbury production plant, at Tesco, and, most visibly, involving Luas workers.

On one level it could simply be argued that, as the economy improves and employment levels increase, more industrial disputes are likely. However, alongside all of these recent disputes we have seen a general election campaign, and the unprecedented results thrown up.

There will be blood (metaphorically) before a new government is formed, and much ink will be spilled in trying to analyse the results for Irish politics and society. Is there some link between the election and its aftermath, and the recent industrial unrest? Is there something deeper and wider going on?

Election slogan

First, it is, as always, the economy, stupid. The last government, and

Fine Gael

in particular, was roundly criticised for its election slogan as large parts of the electorate did not feel the “recovery” had started, never mind being persuaded to vote for it to continue. Inevitably some of the industrial unrest echoes this. The pay claims being pursued by Luas drivers may look excessive to some but clearly reflect the drivers’ views that they have been “left behind” and that ground lost during the austerity years needs to be recovered.

Secondly, there was another manner in which the last government – and again the majority party in particular – badly misread the public mood. The emphasis on tax cuts and reducing charges, whilst not unwelcomed, was ultimately not in tune with the majority mood. Instead, what concerned most voters was the state of public services and how these might be improved.

This clearly is at the heart of disputes in the health service and, although less discussed, in education at second and third level as cuts in recent years put a creaking system under ever greater pressure.

More disputes in public services are inevitable if the situation continues.

Public service

But they will not necessarily be about pay. They will be about the qualitative aspects of public service (long hours, intolerable working environments, inadequate infrastructure). These are the very things the majority considered most important when casting its ballot last month.

Thirdly, and perhaps more profoundly, the election results reflected considerable anger at, and despair of, the “establishment”, resulting in a hiding for the coalition and the election of unprecedented numbers of TDs who are either Independent or from smaller parties and groupings.

This anger is somewhat inchoate, but it appears to be borne in part of a feeling of powerlessness at decisions being made about and for us, but also “over and above us” (by the Troika, or the EU, or Nama or hedge funds).

This seems to me to be visible in the disputes at Cadbury (the outsourcing of jobs to another location, and the threat by Mondelez Ireland of relocation) and at Tesco (the ripping up of long-standing employment contracts in order to “unlock the inflexibility” guaranteed to staff employed before 24-hour opening and Sunday work became the norm).

Whether this anger – and the election results – herald a shift to the left in Irish politics and life is debatable, but it was certainly one factor in the voting patterns of those who opted for many Independents and smaller parties, and it is undeniable that Fianna Fáil positioned itself to the left of its old civil war rival.

In any case, my prediction is that we will see more industrial unrest in the coming months. I hesitate to mention the Voldemort of Irish industrial relations – social partnership – and we cannot and will not go back to this model, but in industrial relations, as in politics, a new accommodation, based on social dialogue, fairness and respect for diverse views, will have to be forged somehow. Prof Michael Doherty is head of the department of law at Maynooth University