Newton Emerson: Sinn Féin’s presidential bid risks leaving it exposed

Sinn Féin's official reason for running a presidential candidate is that the Irish people deserve a choice – a stance given sting by the unvoiced fact that President Higgins promised not to run again.

Political opponents have replied that Sinn Féin always appoints its party presidents by coronation – a riposte given sting by the fact that, as far as is known, it still considers itself the true government of Ireland.

A cheap shot, perhaps, but one Sinn Féin has invited by not being forthright about its real, obvious and entirely legitimate reason for standing. Even with little chance of victory, a presidential election is a priceless opportunity to put the party and its chosen agenda in the headlines for months, for the bargain effort of running one candidate, on the low-risk platform of seeking an almost entirely symbolic office.

That symbolism is particularly important to Sinn Féin, as it can highlight the incompleteness of the Irish nation in republican eyes, without the candidate having to provide detailed answers on how a united Ireland might be delivered. The only sting the party needs to add is to express regret that northern nationalists have no vote. Apart from that, it can campaign on a load of aspirational waffle, given weight by the fact that Sinn Féin is the only party with a meaningful presence on both sides of the Border.

Brexit and rights a route for republicans to closer unity with EU

---

Newton Emerson: Dublin, London are circling each other in confusion and mistrust

---

Newton Emerson: Neglecting the British-Irish Council is a terrible mistake

---

Newton Emerson: Growing paranoia over British passivity on North

---

That was the basis of Martin McGuinness’s candidacy in 2011, the main aim of which was to shift southern perceptions of Sinn Féin as outsiders to high office. This was helped by northern powersharing having reached its zenith, with all the landmark disputes of the peace process finally resolved and none of Stormont’s problems apparently fatal.

Stormont was so successful it led McGuinness's campaign off-script – he ended up as the northern tribune haranguing a cosy southern establishment.

Sinn Féin wants to build on 2011 – there is a reported preference within the party for a northern candidate, and of the favourites named, much is made of their work with or acceptability to unionists.

But of course the Stormont context has changed completely since 2011, which is where the real risk in this year’s campaign lies.

A Stormont resolution cannot safely be rushed for some speculative southern electioneering

All-Ireland positioning, however symbolic, will put Sinn Féin’s candidate on the spot over the collapse of northern powersharing, leaving him or her with no choice but to blame the DUP.

At present that happens to be a fair accusation. As a rough guide – the DUP was responsible for bringing Stormont down, Sinn Féin then spent a year keeping it down, until a failed deal this February passed blame back to the DUP.

But blame is beside the point. It is neither aspirational nor presidential to get sucked into detailed finger-pointing over who is currently the bad guy in Belfast, yet that looks unavoidable while standing on a platform of personifying a new "agreed Ireland".

Haranguing unionists

Suppose, for example, Sinn Féin selects Liadh Ní Riada MEP, the favourite southern candidate. Ní Riada is the party’s Irish language officer, and Stormont is deadlocked over the DUP’s refusal to pass Irish language legislation. How would her campaign not end up off-script, haranguing intransigent unionists?

Stormont is also deadlocked over Troubles legacy issues, to which the favourite northern candidates are connected, and over social policy issues such as same-sex marriage, which any Sinn Féin candidate will want to put at the heart of a progressive platform.

How much do southerners, the only people who have a vote, care about any of this? Again, that is beside the point: Sinn Féin will be promoting itself on the grounds that people should care, dooming it to a hapless or off-putting campaign. Opponents will mock it for platitudes and criticism of unionists alike.

One way through this would be to make a fresh powersharing offer to the DUP. With Stormont talks expected to resume in the autumn, perceptions of republican generosity would be well-timed for the presidential election.

However, February’s deal was already as generous as Sinn Féin’s northern supporters could stomach. Going further would make the party look weak, while largely repeating the offer would make it look insincere.

A Stormont resolution, if it is possible at all, cannot safely be rushed for some speculative southern electioneering.

Brexit has become the ultimate complication in Northern Ireland, with a schedule badly timed to coincide with Stormont talks. It raises concerns for northern nationalists and the diaspora that could be seen as within the president's remit, at least in general terms, which should allow a Sinn Féin candidate to pass blame harmlessly off on the British government.

But alas the DUP has become inextricably linked with Westminster and Brexit, so that is not risk-free either.

The only comfortable course for the party is to watch its tone on Stormont and Brexit for a couple of months, with the unvoiced sting: “Unionists – nobody can deal with them, but at least we tried.”